Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:04 pm EST on Sunday 28 February 2021
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 3 March 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


At 2pm AEST Sunday, a developing tropical low was located in the northwestern Coral Sea, approximately 240km east of Cairns. The low is forecast to develop further under increasingly favourable atmospheric conditions, reaching tropical cyclone status on Tuesday. At this stage, the tropical low is expected to remain slow moving off the north tropical coast before moving southeastward later in the week.

Although a direct coastal impact is currently not expected, gales are possible about exposed coastal and island areas as the system reaches cyclone strength.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Monday:
Moderate
Tuesday:
High
Wednesday:
High



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/