Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 10 February 2016
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 13 February 2016.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A tropical low is currently located over the central Coral Sea well offshore of the Queensland east coast. An increasing monsoonal flow to the north of the system will result in a deepening of the low over the next few days. Environmental atmospheric conditions are marginally favourable for further intensification, and may temporarily improve a little during Thursday and Friday, resulting in a moderate chance of development into a tropical cyclone late Thursday or during Friday.

The low is expected to move slowly eastwards during today and much of Thursday, before gaining speed and shifting to a southeasterly track from late Thursday. This motion will likely take the system east of the Queensland area of responsibility by Saturday. The low is expected to remain well offshore and does not pose an immediate threat to the Queensland coast.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Thursday:
Moderate
Friday:
Moderate
Saturday:
Low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/