Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 5:18 am EST on Wednesday 10 February 2016
for the period until midnight EST Friday 12 February 2016.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A slow moving low pressure system is currently located over the central Coral Sea well offshore of the east Queensland coast. The low is expected to remain slow moving during today and Thursday and should then shift southeastwards from late Thursday. An increasing monsoonal flow to the north of the system will combine with a southeasterly wind surge to the south to result in a deepening of the low over the next few days. Upper atmospheric conditions are now more favourable for further intensification, resulting in a moderate chance of TC development late Thursday or Friday.

The low is expected to remain well offshore and does not pose an immediate threat to the Queensland coast.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:
Low
Thursday:
Moderate
Friday:
Moderate



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/