Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 3:23 pm EST on Saturday 4 July 2015
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 7 July 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


Ex-tropical cyclone Raquel is situated over the Solomon Islands and may reform into a tropical cyclone as it moves to the southwest of the Solomon Islands during Sunday.

If the system does reform into a tropical cyclone on Sunday, it is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone strength during Monday due to increasing shear across the system.

The system will remain very far offshore and does not pose a threat to the Queensland coast.

The official tropical cyclone season runs from November 1st to April 30th. The out of season outlook is being issued due to the heightened risk of tropical cyclone development.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Sunday:
High
Monday:
Moderate
Tuesday:
Very low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/