Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 9 February 2016
for the period until midnight EST Friday 12 February 2016.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A slow moving low pressure system is currently located southeast of Papua New Guinea. Monsoon flow is expected to develop across the northern Coral Sea this week, which may result in some intensification of the system on Thursday and Friday. However, upper atmospheric conditions are not expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone development.

The low is expected to remain well offshore and forecast to move southeast later in the week. This system does not pose a threat to the Queensland coast.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:
Very low
Thursday:
Low
Friday:
Low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/