Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 2 July 2015
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 5 July 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Tropical Cyclone Raquel lies to the northeast of the Solomon Islands group very close to 160E (the border of the Australian/Fiji cylone area of responsibility).

The system has shown a weakening trend during today while tracking slowly east northeastwards. Tropical Cyclone Raquel may move into Fiji's area later today into Friday, and/or continue to weaken, hence the low probability of a Tropical Cyclone in the Eastern Region on Friday. It may then enter a more favourable environment on Saturday while shifting southwestwards.

The system will remain very far offshore and does not pose a threat to the Queensland coast.

The official tropical cyclone season runs from November 1st to April 30th. This out of season outlook is being issued due to the heightened risk of tropical cyclone development.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday:
Low
Saturday:
Moderate
Sunday:
Low

Potential Cyclones:


There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the coming days.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday:
Very low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/