Forecast issued at 4:30 am EST on Tuesday 24 January 2017.
An upper trough will shift northwards along the Townsville coast into the northern tropics this morning and should then become slow moving. Another trough will likely shift west over the Coral Sea towards the east tropical coast late Wednesday before shifting northwards on Thursday. A high in the Tasman Sea extends a weakening ridge along the east coast of Queensland. A surface trough and a very moist and unstable air mass will enter the southwest of the state today and will then extend slowly eastwards over the southern interior during Wednesday and Thursday. Warm to hot conditions will develop over much of the state over the next few days, particularly central and southern districts. Temperatures should then decrease over the southeast on Friday and central districts over the weekend as a ridge builds into these regions.
Forecast for the rest of Tuesday
Showers and possible storms clearing the Townsville coast this morning and increasing about the Cairns coast and ranges through the day. A very high chance of showers and storms about the northern Peninsula and Gulf of Carpentaria coast with possible heavy falls. A medium to high chance of showers and storms extending into the northern interior. The slight to medium chance of showers and storms through western districts, increasing to a very high chance in the far southwest with some heavy falls with storms likely. Fine, warm and mostly sunny in the southeastern corner of the state. Mostly moderate to fresh southeast to northeasterly winds, tending moderate southerly in the far southwest of the state.
Wednesday 25 January
A trough will most likely extend east over the southern interior of the state, resulting in hot conditions spreading through southern and central districts in the northerly wind flow ahead of this feature. The slight to medium chance of showers and storms will extend over western districts west and south of Winton and through to the southern border ranges, increasing to a high chance south of about Quilpie with possible heavy falls with storms. A high chance of showers and storms will persist about the Peninsula and Gulf Country, with a slight to medium chance extending into the northern interior. Some showers are likely about the Cairns and Cassowary coasts, possibly increasing late with isolated storms developing as a trough over the Coral Sea moves west towards the coast. Fine and mostly sunny conditions are expected through remaining areas.
Thursday 26 January
The new trough will most likely extend a little further east over the southern interior, combining with a weak upper trough to result in the slight to medium chance of showers and storms over the southern inland, increasing to a high chance near the New South Wales border east of about Hungerford. Storms should remain inland though there is the slight chance of a late shower about the southern coast. Warm to hot conditions will persist over southern and central districts. Showers and possible storms will persist about the east tropical coast and through the far northern tropics, though this activity should decrease over the Cassowary coast from the south as the trough near the coast shifts north. The slight to medium chance of storms will extend into the northern interior north and west of Richmond.
Friday 27 January
The inland surface trough will likely shift a little further west in response to a ridge of high pressure building into southeastern Queensland from a high over the Tasman Sea. Temperatures should return to close to average over the southeastern corner of the state as a cooler onshore wind flow develops. Showers and storms are possible over much of the southern and central interior, particularly through the Maranoa and Warrego district into the western Darling Downs closer to the surface trough. Some showers are likely over the southeast, particularly inland, with possible isolated storms. A high chance of showers and storms will persist over the Peninsula and Gulf Country districts, with a medium to high chance of showers about the Cairns and Cassowary coasts.
Saturday until Monday
The trough will most likely continue to shift westwards over the interior of the state during the outlook period as a ridge of high pressure builds further northwards over eastern Queensland. Hot conditions should gradually focus further westwards with the surface trough through the interior, particularly affecting the far west, though generally much of the state will still experience temperatures at least near or a bit above average. The surface trough will combine with an upper level trough extending into the state through the outlook period to result in the chance of showers and storms over much of the interior, with a greater chance nearer to the surface trough. Some showers and storms will likely persist over the far northern tropics through the outlook period. An onshore wind flow will result in showers about the Queensland coast and nearby inland, with possible isolated storms due to the upper trough extending from the south and also a broad trough over the northern Coral Sea.
The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm EST Tuesday.