Forecast issued at 4:47 am EST on Thursday 27 November 2014.
A weak ridge of high pressure extends along the east Queensland coast. The ridge will strengthen on Friday as a new high centre develops over the western Tasman Sea. An upper trough lies over southern Queensland and is moving eastwards. A slow moving surface trough lies through the southwest of the state. A coastal trough will most likely enter far southern Queensland waters during Thursday afternoon and shift north, lying near Fraser Island by Friday and then weakening.
Forecast for the rest of Thursday
A medium to high likelihood of showers and storms in parts of the central west, Maranoa and into the southeast of the state. A slight to medium chance of showers and storms through remaining parts of western and central Queensland, apart from the far southwest where conditions will remain fine and sunny. Some showers will persist about the tropical coast and parts of the northern interior. Moderate southeast to northeasterly winds about much of the state, tending south to southeasterly over the south of the state.
Fire Danger - Very High about northern parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields district, the Maranoa and Warrego district and the Darling Downs district.
Friday 28 November
A high centred in the Tasman Sea will extend a firm ridge along the east Queensland coast. An upper trough will shift north through southeast Queensland, while a coastal surface trough should also shift north towards the Sunshine Coast. Conditions will stabilise south of Brisbane though some showers remain likely, particularly during the morning. A medium to high chance of showers about the southeast between Gladstone and Brisbane. A medium to high chance of showers and storms over western districts and the Maranoa and Warrego district, although fine and mostly sunny conditions are expected in the far southwest. A slight chance of some showers near the east tropical and central coasts in the onshore wind flow.
Saturday 29 November
The high centre over the western Tasman Sea will remain slow moving and strengthen slightly, maintaining a firm ridge along the east Queensland coast. The upper trough will most likely shift further north into the Wide Bay and central districts, with showers and possible storms continuing in these parts, and just the slight to medium chance of showers further south along the southern coast. Fine and sunny conditions will continue in the southwest. A slight to medium chance of showers and storms will persist through remaining western, central and southern parts of the state, increasing to a high likelihood in the far northwest. The tropics will remain mostly fine with just the slight chance of showers.
Sunday 30 November
Another high will enter the southern Tasman Sea and shift slowly east, maintaining a ridge along the east Queensland coast. Showers are expected about the east coast and adjacent inland areas north of about Bundaberg A new upper trough is likely to enter the southwest of the state and move eastwards. Showers and thunderstorms are therefore likely to extend from the northwest of the state into the southwest and also into the southern interior. Much of the central interior and southeast should remain fine and mostly sunny.
Monday until Wednesday
The high in the Tasman Sea is expected to maintain a ridge along the east coast through the outlook period. The upper trough should also move eastwards on Monday and Tuesday and is likely to contract off the southeast coast during Tuesday evening, whilst a new trough may move into the west of the state on Wednesday. A band of showers and storms from the northwest of the state to the southeast interior on Monday should move slowly eastwards on Tuesday. Showers and storms are likely to develop again about the west and southern interior on Wednesday. Showers are likely to persist about the east coast through the outlook period in the onshore flow.
The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm EST Thursday.