Forecast issued at 4:30 am EST on Thursday 5 March 2015.
An upper level trough over the eastern tropics will move westwards into the Gulf of Carpentaria during the next couple of days. A surface trough will move east over the southeast of the state today, most likely contracting off the southern coast in the evening and progressing north towards Fraser Island on Friday. Hot conditions will focus through central and southeastern parts of the state today before shifting into central districts and the southern tropics on Friday as a cooler southeasterly wind flow extends over areas to the south of the trough.
Forecast for the rest of Thursday
The slight chance of an afternoon or evening gusty shower or thunderstorm near the southern coast and through the Wide Bay and Capricornia. Some showers and possible storms near the east tropical coast south of Cooktown, becoming less likely in the afternoon. A slight to medium chance of showers and storms through the remaining tropics and northwest, increasing to a high chance through the Peninsula and northern Gulf Country. The slight chance of a light shower over the central interior. Fine and mostly sunny elsewhere. A hot day over central parts and the southeastern corner of the state. Moderate southeast to northeasterly winds through the tropics and near the east coast. Moderate to fresh and gusty south to southwesterly winds extending through western and southern Queensland.
Fire Danger - Severe in the Darling Downs and Granite Belt district. Very High elsewhere about the central, southern and southeast interior.
Friday 6 March
The coastal trough and a fresh southeasterly wind change will progress further northwards towards Fraser Island while the inland trough will extend from the Gulf Country into the central interior. A slight to medium chance of showers and storms is therefore expected north of Century Mine to Clermont to Fraser Island, increasing to a high chance in the Peninsula and eastern Gulf Country. The southeasterly wind flow will result in a cooler day in the southeast with a slight to medium chance of showers. Fine and sunny conditions are expected in the west with temperatures decreasing further, particularly in the southwest.
Saturday 7 March
A high over the Tasman Sea will extend a weak ridge along the east Queensland coast. The surface trough will shift further westwards into the interior of the state, while an upper level trough will approach the southwest of the state. This will result in a medium chance of showers and storms over northern and central districts (mostly inland), extending into the central west during the day. Fine and mostly sunny conditions will continue through remaining western parts while a slight to medium chance of showers will persist over the southeastern corner of the state.
Sunday 8 March
A high over the Tasman Sea will maintain the ridge along the east Queensland coast. The upper trough is expected to move east over the southern interior of the state whilst the surface trough will remain slow moving over the interior. These features will result in a slight to medium chance of showers and storms through northern and central districts into the southern interior, increasing to a high chance over the far northern tropics in a better depth of moisture. Fine and mostly sunny conditions will continue through remaining western parts. Just the slight chance of a shower is expected in the southeast, increasing to a medium chance near the southern border ranges with the chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday until Wednesday
The monsoon is expected to reform over the northern Coral Sea during the outlook period, while high pressure centres in the Tasman Sea will extend a firm ridge into the southern Coral Sea and to southern and central Queensland waters. The surface trough will shift further westwards into western Queensland as the ridge builds, with showers and storms through the southern interior focusing further west with the surface trough late in the outlook period. The upper trough over the southern interior will shift east into southeastern Queensland on Tuesday. Showers could become more likely through east coast districts south of the tropics as onshore wind flow strengthens and the upper trough shifts east. Showers and storms should increase through the tropics as moisture builds.
The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm EST Thursday.