Bureau Research Reports
Hector Morisseau, Hongyan Zhu, Debra Hudson, Catherine de Burgh-Day | February 2025
Object-oriented verification of TC-Jasper rainfall forecasts: Machine learning model versus physical models
Bureau Research Report No. 106

Paul Gregory, Christopher Pickett-Heaps | February 2025
Improvements to the AFDRS seasonal outlook using calibrated soil moisture and grass curing forecasts
Bureau Research Report No. 105

Robert Taggart, Morwenna Griffiths, Matthew Wheeler, Claire Spillman | January 2025
Ensemble transformations for consistency with a target forecast and its application to seamless weather to subseasonal forecasting
Bureau Research Report No. 104

Chris Bridge, Susan Rennie, Peter Steinle, Andrew Frost, Warwick Grace, Damon Grace, John Nairn | November 2024
Can an Agricultural Mesonet Improve Numerical Weather Prediction Forecast Quality?
Bureau Research Report No. 103

Monika Krysta, Peter Steinle, Susan Rennie, Jin Lee, Imtiaz Dharssi, Andy Smith, Chris Bridge, Thomas Coleman | November 2024
National Analysis System
Bureau Research Report No. 102

Wahid Zaman, Alex Evans, Andrew Frost, Blair Trewin, David Jones | October 2024
A new gridded daily temperature analysis scheme for Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 101

Naomi Benger, Aurel Griesser, Alex Evans | September 2024
A class-y approach to assessing future bushfire risk
Bureau Research Report No. 100

Chris Lucas | September 2024
The 17 April 2024 eruption of Ruang: analysis and dispersion modelling using DEPS-2
Bureau Research Report No. 099

Nahidul Hoque Samrat, Fiona Smith, Andrew Smith, Vincent Villani | September 2024
Preliminary evaluation of thinning for dense satellite radiance observations assimilated in the ACCESS-C: Darwin Domain Case Study
Bureau Research Report No. 098

Chun-Hsu Su, Susan Rennie, Joshua Torrance, Emma Howard, Christian Stassen, Mathew Lipson, Rob Warren, Acacia Pepler, Imtiaz Dharssi, Charmaine Franklin | August 2024
BARRA-C2: Development of the kilometre-scale downscaled atmospheric reanalysis over Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 097

Mitchell Black, Dörte Jakob, David Jones, Richard Matear, Hamish Ramsay, Acacia Pepler, Naomi Benger, Lynette Bettio, Karl Braganza, Judith Landsberg, Shoni Maguire, Michael Grose, Andrew Dowdy | May 2024
Acute hazards in a future climate: guidance provided to the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority
Bureau Research Report No. 096

Thomas C. Pagano and Peter Newham | May 2024
Assessing the representativeness of in situ wind observations for use in weather forecast verification
Bureau Research Report No. 095

Paul Gregory, Naomi Benger, Howard Jacobs, Harvey Ye, William Wang, Avijeet Ramchurn, Elise Chandler | May 2024
The Australian Fire Danger Ratings System Seasonal Outlook Service
Bureau Research Report No. 094

Belinda Trotta, James Canvin, Thomas Gale, Timothy Hume, Robert Johnson, Jiaping Liu, Daniel Mentiplay, Benjamin Owen, Anja Schubert, Gary Weymouth, Jennifer Whelan | March 2024
An initial benchmarking of IMPROVER – Part 2: evaluation of precipitation diagnostics
Bureau Research Report No. 093

Benjamin Owen, James Canvin, Thomas Gale, Timothy Hume, Robert Johnson, Jiaping Liu, Daniel Mentiplay, Anja Schubert, Belinda Trotta, Gary Weymouth, Jennifer Whelan | March 2024
An initial benchmarking of IMPROVER – Part 1: evaluation of non-precipitation diagnostics
Bureau Research Report No. 092

Meelis Zidikheri, Peter Steinle, Yi Xiao, Esteban Abellan Villardon | March 2024
An objective evaluation of the Bureau's ACCESS-GE4 global ensemble model
Bureau Research Report No. 091

Andrew Frost, Ashkan Shokri, Paul Fox-Hughes | February 2024
Spatial grassland and savanna curing seasonal prediction for input into the Australian Fire Danger Rating System
Bureau Research Report No. 090

Chris Bridge, Peter Steinle, Susan Rennie, Andrew Frost, Damon Grace, Warwick Grace, John Nairn | February 2024
Assessing the Quality of Automatic Weather Station Observations from an External Provider for Data Assimilation Purposes
Bureau Research Report No. 089

Wendy Sharples, Stuart Baron-Hay | November 2023
Generating surface wind grids
Bureau Research Report No. 088

Andrew Dowdy | October 2023
A bias correction method designed for weather and climate extremes
Bureau Research Report No. 087

Christian Stassen, Chun-Hsu Su, Andrew Dowdy, Charmaine Franklin, Emma Howard, Peter Steinle | September 2023
Development and Assessment of Regional Atmospheric Nudging in ACCESS
Bureau Research Report No. 086

Jane Warne, Lachlan Nicholls, James Chittleborough, Bill Mitchell, Grant Smith, Herve Damlamian, Zulfikar Begg | September 2023
Absolute sea level in the Pacific: data and methodology
Bureau Research Report No. 085

Chun-Hsu Su, Susan Rennie, Joshua Torrance, Imtiaz Dharssi, Siyuan Tian, Emma Howard, Acacia Pepler, Christian Stassen, Peter Steinle | August 2023
Preliminary assessment of regional moderate-resolution atmospheric reanalysis for Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 084

Chris Lucas, Matthew C Wheeler, Hanh Nguyen, Andrew B Watkins, Zhi-Weng Chua, Catherine Ganter | August 2023
Revising the Bureau's ENSO Alert System: Adapting Indices in a Changing Climate
Bureau Research Report No. 083

Morwenna Griffiths, Paul Smith, Hailin Yan, Claire Spillman, Griffith Young and Debra Hudson | May 2023
ACCESS-S2: Updates and improvements to postprocessing pipeline
Bureau Research Report No. 082

Catherine de Burgh-Day and Robert Taggart | May 2023
A computationally efficient method for fitting smooth parametrized curves to precipitation distributions
Bureau Research Report No. 081

Simon Benson and Monika Krysta | April 2023
Generation of Background Error Covariances for ACCESS-C
Bureau Research Report No. 080

Robert Taggart | March 2023
Estimation of CRPS for precipitation forecasts using weighted sums of quantile scores and Brier scores
Bureau Research Report No. 079


Andrew Dowdy and Andrew Brown | March 2023
Environmental indicators for thunderstorms, lightning and convective rainfall
Bureau Research Report No. 077

Jesse Greenslade and Paul Gregory | March 2023
Towards an improved Bureau Seasonal Cyclone Outlook
Bureau Research Report No. 076

Sugata Narsey, James Risbey, Dörte Jakob, and Michael Grose | February 2023
Perspectives on the Feb-Mar 2022 east coast extreme rainfall event
Bureau Research Report No. 075

Saima Aijaz, Gary B. Brassington, Prasanth Divakaran, Charly Régnier, Marie Drévillon, Jan Maksymczuk and Kerry Smout-Day | January 2023
Global ocean Eulerian currents verification and intercomparison, 2018-2020
Bureau Research Report No. 074

Dörte Jakob, Mitchell Black, Naomi Benger, Michael Grose, Ben Hague, Justin Peter, Acacia Pepler | January 2023
A review of existing climate portals
Bureau Research Report No. 073

Hanh Nguyen, Chris Lucas, Matthew Wheeler and Andrew Watkins | December 2022
Summary of a workshop on ENSO/IOD alert systems for a warming world held 16-17 August 2022
Bureau Research Report No. 072

Deryn Griffiths and Ashoka Jayawardena | November 2022
AutoFcst: A coherent set of forecast grids
Bureau Research Report No. 071

Simon Benson, Monika Krysta, Tony Bannister | September 2022
Evaluating the Advantages and Challenges of the National Analysis System
Bureau Research Report No. 070

Chun-Hsu Su, Christian Stassen, Emma Howard, Harvey Ye, Samuel Bell, Acacia Pepler, Andrew J. Dowdy, Simon O. Tucker, Charmaine Franklin | September 2022
BARPA: New development of ACCESS-based regional climate modelling for Australian Climate Service
Bureau Research Report No. 069

Eun-Pa Lim, Ghyslaine Boschat, Irina Rudeva and Chris Lucas | September 2022
A review of Antarctic stratospheric ozone trends and variability and their impacts on surface climate
Bureau Research Report No. 068

Chun-Hsu Su, Susan Rennie, Imtiaz Dharssi, Joshua Torrance, Andy Smith, Tan Le, Peter Steinle, Christian Stassen, Rob A. Warren, Carl Wang, John Le Marshall | August 2022
BARRA2: Development of the next-generation Australian regional atmospheric reanalysis
Bureau Research Report No. 067

Xiaobing Zhou and Oscar Alves | July 2022
Evaluating Sea Ice in ACCESS-S2
Bureau Research Report No. 066

Christopher A. Pickett-Heaps & Elisabeth Vogel | July 2022
Seasonal Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts for Australia using AWRA-L — Hindcast Verification Report
Bureau Research Report No. 065

Robert Taggart | June 2022
Assessing calibration when predictive distributions have discontinuities
Bureau Research Report No. 064

Tim Cowan, Matthew C. Wheeler, Debra Hudson, Catherine de Burgh-Day, Morwenna Griffiths, Griffith Young | June 2022
Skill of ACCESS-S2 in predicting rainfall bursts over Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 063

Caroline Poulsen, Leon Majewski | May 2022
Gridded satellite solar observations project: Implementation of Heliosat-4 and the application of bias correction.
Bureau Research Report No. 062

Sri Srikanthan, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Louise Wilson, Wendy Sharples, Elisabeth Vogel, Justin R. Peter, Pandora K. Hope, Sean Loh, Zaved Khan, Vico Duong, Jake Roussis, Andrew Dowdy, Alison Oke, Vjekoslav Matic, Margot Turner, Greg Kociuba, Steven Thomas, Ali Azarnivand, Chantal Donnelly and Elisabetta Carrara | April 2022
National Hydrological Projections - Design and Methodology
Bureau Research Report No. 061

Ali Azarnivand, Wendy Sharples, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Ashkan Shokri, Sri Srikanthan, Andrew Frost, Stuart Baron-Hay | February 2022
Analysing the uncertainty of modelling hydrologic states of AWRA-L – understanding impacts from parameter uncertainty for the National Hydrological Projections
Bureau Research Report No. 060

Eric Schulz, Janice Sisson & Helen Beggs | September 2021
Quality control procedure for IMOS real-time meteorological and sea surface observations, and airsea fluxes from research vessel and mooring platforms
Bureau Research Report No. 059

Andrew Frost, Ashkan Shokri, Ali Azarnivand, Greg Keir | September 2021
Spatial root choke prediction modelling for Sydney Water: Technical report describing methodology and results
Bureau Research Report No. 058

Chun-Hsu Su, Harvey Ye, Andrew Dowdy, Acacia Pepler, Christian Stassen, Andrew Brown, Simon O. Tucker, Peter J. Steinle | July 2021
Towards ACCESS-based regional climate projections for Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 057

Samuel Bell, Savin Chand, Andrew Dowdy, Hamish Ramsay, Anil Deo, Chun-Hsu Su, Andrew Brown and Harvey Ye | July 2021
Australian tropical cyclone-induced extreme coastal winds in climate datasets
Bureau Research Report No. 056

Andrew Dowdy, Andrew Brown, Acacia Pepler, Marcus Thatcher, Tony Rafter, Jason Evans, Hua Ye, Chun-Hsu Su, Samuel Bell and Christian Stassen | July 2021
Extreme temperature, wind and bushfire weather projections using a standardised method
Bureau Research Report No. 055

Roseanna McKay, Ghyslaine Boschat, Irina Rudeva, Andrew Dowdy, Surendra Rauniyar, Zoe Gillett, Ariaan Purich, Acacia Pepler, Pandora Hope | July 2021
A review of the observed changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation and their links to rainfall changes in south-eastern Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 054

Irina Rudeva, Ghyslaine Boschat, Roseanna McKay, Acacia Pepler, Andrew Dowdy, Pandora Hope | July 2021
Weather systems related to wet and dry extremes
Bureau Research Report No. 053

Catherine de Burgh-Day, Francis Dillon | July 2021
A hybrid parametrisation for precipitation probability of exceedance data
Bureau Research Report No. 052

Stefan Zieger and Diana J. M. Greenslade | May 2021
A multiple-resolution global wave model – AUSWAVE-G3
Bureau Research Report No. 051

Robert Taggart | December 2020
Point forecasts and forecast evaluation with generalised Huber loss
Bureau Research Report No. 050

Doerte Jakob, Luke Osburn, Pandora Hope, Lynette Smith | November 2020
Short-duration, heavy rainfall is intensifying, but not everywhere, and not all the time – A literature review
Bureau Research Report No. 049

Hongyan Zhu, Guomin Wang, Beth Ebert, Diana Greenslade, Catherine de Burgh-Day, Paul Fox-Hughes, François Delage, Carla Mooney, Andrew Frost, Rachel Law, Caroline Poulsen, Mandy Mitreski and Ian Smith (editors) | November 2020
A Land of Storms, Floods and Bushfires: Seamless and Integrated Forecasting – Abstracts of the Bureau of Meteorology Annual R&D Workshop, 23 November to 26 November 2020, Melbourne, Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 048

Susan Rennie | October 2020
Direct Assimilation of Radar Reflectivity from Australian Dual-Polarisation Radars
Bureau Research Report No. 047

Editors: Alan Seed, Aurora Bell, Peter Steinle, Susan Rennie | May 2019
Forecasting Demonstration Project - Sydney 2014
Bureau Research Report No. 046

Carlos Velasco-Forero, Jayaram Pudashine, Mark Curtis, and Alan Seed | September 2020
STEPS3 – ADV – VERIFICATION REPORT
Bureau Research Report No. 045

Josephine R. Brown, Robert A. Colman, Sugata Narsey, Aurel F. Moise | July 2020
Sensitivity of Australian Monsoon Rainfall to Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects under a Range of Emission Scenarios
Bureau Research Report No. 044

Grant Smith, Claire Spillman | May 2020
Ocean Temperature Outlooks – Coral Bleaching Risk: Great Barrier Reef and Australian waters
Bureau Research Report No. 043

Catherine de Burgh-Day, Morwenna Griffiths, Hailin Yan, Griffith Young, Debbie Hudson, Oscar Alves | April 2020
An adaptable framework for development and real time production of experimental sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast products
Bureau Research Report No. 042

Alex Evans, David Jones, Rob Smalley, Stephen Lellyett | June 2020 (Updated)
An enhanced gridded rainfall analysis scheme for Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 041

Diana Greenslade, Leon Majewski, Linden Ashcroft, Jaclyn Brown, Christine Chung, Chantal Donnelly, Justin Freeman, Deryn Griffiths, Val Jemmeson and Ian Smith (editors) | November 2019
Forecasting for the Future: New science for improved weather, water, ocean and climate services - Abstracts of the Bureau of Meteorology Annual R&D Workshop, 25 November to 28 November 2019, Melbourne, Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 040

Diana J. M. Greenslade and Stewart C. R. Allen | October 2019
On the optimal amplitude thresholds for tsunami warning
Bureau Research Report No. 039

Bodo Zeschke, Mike Willmott, Agnes Lane and Anthony Rea | October 2019
How Himawari-8 data has revolutionised the work of Bureau of Meteorology Forecasters
Bureau Research Report No. 038

Surendra P. Rauniyar, Scott B. Power and Pandora Hope | September 2019
A literature review of past and projected changes in Victorian rainfall and their causes, and climate baselines
Bureau Research Report No. 037

Richard A. Dare and Rodney Potts | August 2019
A sensitivity study of the fog fraction scheme employed in the ACCESS NWP models
Bureau Research Report No. 036

Richard A. Dare and Rodney Potts | August 2019
Sensitivity and tuning of the visibility scheme employed in the ACCESS NWP models
Bureau Research Report No. 035

Andrew Brown and Andrew Dowdy | August 2019
Extreme wind gusts and thunderstorms in South Australia analysed from 1979-2017
Bureau Research Report No. 034

Belinda Roux | December 2017
ACCESS Sensitivity Experiments for fog cases at Perth Airport
Bureau Research Report No. 033

Blair Trewin | October 2018
The Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) version 2
Bureau Research Report No. 032

Diana Greenslade, Andy Taylor, Justin Freeman, Holly Sims, Eric Schulz, Frank Colberg, Prasanth Divakaran, Mirko Velic and Jeff Kepert | October 2018
A First Generation Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Forecast System Part 1: Hydrodynamic model
Bureau Research Report No. 031

Keith Day, Michael Naughton, Saima Aijaz, Surendra Rauniyar, Grant Smith, Carlos Velasco-Forero and Meelis Zidikheri (editors) | November 2018
Ensemble Methods: Nowcasting to Climate Change - Abstracts of the Bureau of Meteorology Annual R&D Workshop, 26th November to 30th November 2018, Melbourne, Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 030

Yimin Ma, Gary Dietachmayer, Peter Steinle, Wenming Lu, Lawrence Rikus, Dean Sgarbossa | April 2018
Diagnose Wind Gusts from High Resolution NWP Modelling over Mountainous Regions
Bureau Research Report No. 029

Stewart Allen, Diana Greenslade, Frank Colberg, Justin Freeman and Eric Schulz | January 2018
A first-generation national storm surge forecast system
Bureau Research Report No. 028

Belinda Roux | September 2017
Case studies for fog at Melbourne Airport
Bureau Research Report No. 027

Imtiaz Dharssi and Vinodkumar | October 2017
JASMIN: A prototype high resolution soil moisture analysis system for Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 026

Christopher Lucas | September 2017
Validation of a Satellite-based Fog and Low Stratus Detection Algorithm Using Himawari-8 over Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 025

Dare, R.A. | September 2017
Evaluation of numerical model forecasts of visibility and fog at Australian Airports
Bureau Research Report No. 024

Zhao, M., Zhang, H-Q. and Dharssi, I. | June 2017
Impact of Land-surface Initialization on ACCESS-S1 and Comparison with POAMA
Bureau Research Report No. 023

Vinod Kumar & Imtiaz Dharssi | May 2017
Evaluation of daily soil moisture deficit used in Australian forest fire danger rating system
Bureau Research Report No. 022

Deryn Griffiths, Harry Jack, Michael Foley, Ioanna Ioannou and Maoyuan Liu | April 2017
Advice for Automation of Forecasts: A Framework
Bureau Research Report No. 021

Hudson, D., Shi, L., Alves, O., Zhao, M., Hendon, H.H. and Young, G. | March 2017
Performance of ACCESS-S1 for key horticultural regions
Bureau Research Report No. 020

Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H.H., Hudson, D., Zhao, M., Shi, L., Alves O. and Young, G. | October 2016
Evaluation of the ACCESS-S1 hindcasts for prediction of Victorian seasonal rainfall
Bureau Research Report No. 019

Guomin Wang, Pandora Hope, Eun-Pa Lim, Harry H Hendon and Julie M Arblaster. | November 2016
Three Methods for the Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events
Bureau Research Report No. 018

Peter Steinle, Imtiaz Dharssi, Georg Gottwald, Val Jemmeson, Jeffrey Kepert, John Le Marshall, Jin Lee, Terence O'Kane, Pavel Sakov, Yonghong Yin and Keith Day (Eds.) | November 2016
Data assimilation – Abstracts of the tenth CAWCR Workshop 5-9 December 2016, Melbourne, Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 017

Hudson, D. and Marshall, A.G. | September 2016
Extending the Bureau's heatwave forecast to multi-week timescales
Bureau Research Report No. 016

Hope, P., Timbal, B., Hendon, H. and Ekström, M. (eds.) | September 2016
Victorian Climate Initiative final annual report 2015-16
Bureau Research Report No. 015

Bertrand Timbal, Marie Ekström, Sonya Fiddes, Michael Grose, Dewi Kirono, Eun-Pa Lim, Chris Lucas and Louise Wilson | May 2016
Climate change science and Victoria
Bureau Research Report No. 014

Li Shi, Debra Hudson, Oscar Alves, Griffith Young, Craig MacLachlan | March 2016
Comparison of GloSea5-GC2 skill with POAMA-2 for key horticultural regions
Bureau Research Report No. 013

Richard A. Dare | January 2016
Evaluation of Australian Bureau of Meteorology global numerical weather prediction forecasts of tropical precipitation
Bureau Research Report No. 012

Harry H. Hendon, Mei Zhao, Andrew Marshall, Eun-pa Lim, Jing-Jia Luo, Oscar Alves and Craig MacLachlan | December 2015
Comparison of GLOSEA5 and POAMA2.4 Hindcasts 1996-2009
Bureau Research Report No. 011

Xiaobing Zhou, Jing-Jia Luo, Oscar Alves and Harry Hendon | December 2015
Comparison of GloSea5 and POAMA2.4 Hindcasts 1996-2009: Ocean Focus
Bureau Research Report No. 010

Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi | December 2015
Sources of soil dryness measures and forecasts for fire danger rating
Bureau Research Report No. 009

Hongyan Zhu and Gary Dietachmayer | December 2015
Improving ACCESS-C convection settings
Bureau Research Report No. 008

Hongyan Zhu and Rachel Stratton | December 2015
Effects of the changing heating profile associated with melting layers
Bureau Research Report No. 007

Richard A. Dare and Noel E. Davidson | December 2015
Seasonal distributions of daily heavy rain events over Australia
Bureau Research Report No. 006

Hope, P., Timbal, B., Hendon, H. and Ekström, M. (eds.) | October 2015
Victorian Climate Initiative annual report 2014-15
Bureau Research Report No. 005

Chris Lucas and Leon Majewski | August 2015
Evaluation of GEOCAT Volcanic Ash Algorithm for use in BoM – A Report of the Improved Volcanic Ash Detection and Prediction Project
Bureau Research Report No. 004

Melanie Webb and Paul Fox-Hughes | July 2015
An analysis of extreme rainfall in northern Tasmania, 12-14 January 2011
Bureau Research Report No. 003

Xiaobing Zhou, Oscar Alves, Anthony C. Hirst, Simon J. Marsland and Daohua Bi | July 2015
The role of Karimata Strait Throughflow and Makassar Strait Throughflow on the Indo-Pacific Climate
Bureau Research Report No. 002

Debra Hudson, Andrew G. Marshall, Oscar Alves, Li Shi and Griffith Young | June 2015
Forecasting upcoming extreme heat on multi-week to seasonal timescales: POAMA experimental forecast products
Bureau Research Report No. 001
