R&D Annual Workshop 2018

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Ensemble methods – Nowcasting to Climate Change

Annual Workshop | 26 November — 30 November (Monday to Friday)

Workshop Theme

This is the 30th year the Bureau of Meteorology has run its annual R&D workshop; which started life as the BMRC Modelling Workshop in 1989, and has been the CAWCR Workshop for the last decade, jointly hosted with CSIRO.  During this time, there has been a shift from forecasting being strongly deterministic in its methods and communication to probabilities being explicitly included in the way forecasts are made and expressed.  One of the key methodologies in making this change has been to use an ensemble of forecasts rather than a single realisation.

The workshop will look at ensemble methods in the Bureau across a range of timescales from nowcasting forecasts for the next few hours to climate change projections on multi-decadal timescales.  A dedicated half-day workshop will be held to consider what is required for the Bureau to get the best value from the use of ensembles in its forecasting activities and climate applications.

Workshop Topics:

  • Weather Prediction Modelling

  • Weather Forecasting Applications

  • Ensembles for Bureau National Forecast Services and National Business Sectors

  • Ocean and Storm Surge Modelling

  • Seasonal Forecasting

  • Climate & Water Projections

  • High Performance Computing

Keynote Speakers:

  • Tim Palmer, Oxford University
  • Roberto Buizza, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa &  ECMWF
  • Warren Tennant, UK Met Office
  • Ilene Carpenter, CRAY
  • Aurore Porson, UK Met Office
  • Craig Bishop, University of Melbourne
  • Simon McCulloch, BoM
  • Jonathan Flowerdew, UK Met Office
  • Marion Mittermeier, UK Met Office
  • Oyvind Breivik, Norwegian Met Institute
  • Pat Hogan, US Naval Research Laboratory
  • Magdalena Balmaseda, ECMWF
  • Reto Knutti, ETH Zurich
  • Gab Abramowitz, University of NSW
  • Berit Arheimer, SMHI

     Workshop Sponsors


Sponsors Logos Bureau of Meteorology Logo CSIRO Logo DDN Storage Logo Xenon Logo NCI Logo Cray Logo