A print version of this program is available for download HERE.
The 2018 Workshop book of abstracts is available HERE.
Program updated : 7th December 2018
| DAY 1 – Monday 26th November | |||||
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| 8:30 | Registration | ||||
| Workshop opening Chair: Michael Naughton |  |
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| 9:00 | Aunty Julieanne Axford | Welcome to Country | |
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| Peter May | Introduction | |
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Ensemble Methods for Weather Prediction Modelling Organiser: Michael Naughton Chair: Peter Steinle |
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| 9:15 | Keynote – Tim Palmer (Oxford University) | History of ensemble prediction |  |
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| 9:45 | Keynote – Roberto Buizza (Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy) | The ECMWF Ensembles of analyses and forecasts | |
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| 10:15 – 10:45 | Morning Tea (30 Mins) | |||||
| 10:45 | Keynote – Warren Tennant (UKMO) | Met Office global ensemble prediction developments | |
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| 11:15 | Michael Naughton (BoM) | Bureau ACCESS-GE global ensemble prediction systems | |
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| 11:30 | Abhijit Sarkar (NCMRWF) | NCMRWF 12 km resolution global ensemble prediction system | |
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| 11:45 | Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay (IITM) | IITM 12 km resolution (12 km) global ensemble prediction system based on GEFS: Evaluation of extreme precipitation events over Indian region | |
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| 12:00 | Jim Fraser (BoM) | Ideas for ensemble TC prediction | |
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| 12:15 | Keynote – Ilene Carpenter (CRAY) | Cray’s vision for Data Centric Computing for Earth Science | |
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| 12:30 – 13:45 | Lunch (75 Mins) | |||||
| 13:45 | Keynote – Aurore Porson (UKMO) | Met Office convective scale NWP | |
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| 14:15 | Shaun Cooper (BoM) | Bureau ACCESS-CE convective-scale ensembles | |
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| 14:30 | Dragana Zovko Raja (BoM) | High-resolution ensemble prediction of the East Coast Low of April 2015 | |
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| 14:45 | Keynote – Craig Bishop (University of Melbourne) | Issues in ensemble data assimilation | |
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| 15:15 | Monika Krysta (BoM) | BoM ensemble DA activities | |
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| 15:30 | Phil Andrews (NIWA) | Does the Met Office Consortium Need to Develop an Ensemble for Forecasting? | |
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| 15:45 – 16:15 | Afternoon Tea (30 Mins) | |||||
| Ensemble Weather Forecasting Applications Chair: Carlos Velasco | |||||
| 16:15 | Alan Seed (BoM) | STEPS radar rainfall nowcasting | |
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| 16:30 | Luigi Renzullo (Australian National University) | Continental rainfall ensembles derived from multi-source merged analysis | |
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| 16:45 | QJ Wang (University of Melbourne) | Seasonally Coherent Calibration (SCC), for calibrating forecasts from NWP models | |
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| 17:00 | Justin Robinson (BoM) | Rainfall ensembles for operational flood forecasting | |
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| 17:15 | End of day 1 | |||||
A print version of this program is available for download HERE.
The 2018 Workshop book of abstracts is available HERE.
Program updated : 7th December 2018
| DAY 2 – Tuesday 27th November | |||||
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Bureau National Forecast Services and Business Sectors Chair: Gary Weymouth and Carlos Velasco |
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| 9:00 | Keynote – Gary Weymouth (BoM) | Plans for Ensemble Services in the Bureau (Ensemble Working Group) | |
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| 9:20 | Tim Pugh (BoM) | Delivery of the next Bureau NWP products and benefits in 2019 | – – | |
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| 9:35 | Dean Sgarbossa (BoM) | Extreme Weather Desk practices with weather ensembles | |
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| 9:50 | Simon Heemstra (NSW RFS) | Utilising research to improve bushfire management | |
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| 10:10 | Andrew Bishop (MDBA) | Developing a source river operations tool – Murray Darling Basin Authority | |
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| 10:30 – 11:00 | Morning Tea (30 Mins) | |||||
| 11:00 | David Guppy (AEMO) |
The value of Ensembles on AEMO objectives |
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| 11:30 | Matthew Boterhoven (BoM) | Use of Ensembles in Tropical Cyclone warnings | |
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| 11:45 | Brad Hall (BoM) | Use of Ensembles in the Energy and Resource sector forecasts | |
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| 12:00 | James Taylor (BoM) | Just how good can weather forecasts be these days? | |
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| 12:15 | Alasdair Hainsworth (ex-WMO) | Disaster risk management – A (meteorological) outcome of ensemble modelling | |
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| 12:30 | Shoni Maguire (BoM) | Advances in the Bureau’s Disaster Mitigation Policy | |
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| 12:45 – 14:00 | Lunch (75 Mins) | |||||
| Ensemble Weather Forecasting Applications Organiser: Meelis Zidikheri Chair: Beth Ebert | |||||
| 14:00 | Keynote – Jonathon Flowerdew | IMPROVER – The new Met Office integrated post-processing and verification system | |
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| 14:30 | Gary Weymouth (BoM) | Plans for using IMPROVER in the Bureau | |
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| 14:45 | Scott Carpentier (BoM) | Use of ensembles and probabilistic forecasts in Antarctic weather | |
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| 15:00 | Harald Richter (BoM) | Use of convection-allowing models in forecasting severe convective hazards | |
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| 15:15 | Chris Lucas (BoM) | Incorporating satellite observations into a volcanic ash dispersion ensemble prediction system | |
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| 15:30 | Sophie Zhang (BoM) | Evaluation of NWP model rainfall forecasts for the 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasting service | |
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| 15:45 – 16:15 | Afternoon Tea (30 Mins) | |||||
| 16:15 | Michael Foley (BoM) | Single-valued forecasts in an ensemble world | |
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| 16:40 | Chris Bridge (BoM) | NWP ensemble verification | |
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| 16:55 | Deryn Griffiths (BoM) | Verification of probabilistic rainfall forecasts | |
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| 17:15 | End of day 2 | |||||
A print version of this program is available for download HERE.
The 2018 Workshop book of abstracts is available HERE.
Program updated : 7th December 2018
| DAY 3 – Wednesday 28th November | |||||
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| Ocean and Storm Surge Modelling Chair: Saima Aijaz | |||||
| 9:00 | Keynote – Øyvind Breivik (Norwegian Meteorological Institute) | The Copernicus Arctic Marine Forecasting Center | |
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| 9:30 | Justin Freeman (BoM) | A Data Content Search Method | |
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| 9:45 | Diana Greenslade and Stewart Allen (BoM) | Ensemble forecast system for TC storm surge | |
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| 10:00 | Ian Young (University of Melbourne) |
Ensemble estimates of extreme values using ECMWF Integrated Forecast System | |
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| 10:15 | Gary Brassington (BoM) | Bluelink ocean forecasting developments – OceanMAPS, ADEPT and ensemble forecasting | |
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| 10:30 – 11:00 | Morning Tea (30 Mins) | |||||
| 11:00 | Keynote – Pat Hogan (US Naval Research Laboratory) | US Navy ocean forecasting developments – 1/25 degree HYCOM and ensemble forecasting | |
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| 11:30 | Alberto Meucci (University of Melbourne) | Ensemble estimates of future climate from the COWCLIP dataset | |
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| 11:45 | Saima Aijaz (BoM) | Bias correction of tropical cyclone structure in ECMWF Ensemble Prediction system for NW Australia | |
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| 12:00 | Stefan Zieger (BoM) | Wave ensemble forecast system for tropical cyclones in the Australian region | |
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| 12:15 | Frank Colberg (BoM) | The eReefs operational coastal ocean prediction system of the Bureau of Meteorology | |
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| 12:30 | Helen Beggs (BoM) | Ensemble Optimal Interpolation SST Analysis System based on EnKF-C system | |
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| 12:45 – 13:45 | Lunch (60 Mins) | |||||
| Seasonal Prediction Chair: Grant Smith | |||||
| 13:45 | Keynote – Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF) | Ensembles in the Ocean | |
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| 14:15 | Terry O'Kane (CSIRO) | Coupled data assimilation and ensemble initialization with application to ENSO prediction | |
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| 14:30 | Debbie Hudson (BoM) | Ensemble forecast products for user decisions on multi-week to seasonal timescales | |
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| 14:45 | Cat de Burgh-Day (BoM) | ACCESS-S1 ocean forecast products for marine industry applications in New Zealand | |
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| 15:00 | Andrew Marshall (BoM) | MJO Prediction | |
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| 15:15 – 15:45 | Afternoon Tea (30 Mins) | |||||
| Chair: Robyn Duell | |||||
| 15:45 | Keynote – Tim Palmer (Oxford University) | Stochastic physics and seasonal prediction | |
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| 16:15 | William Wang (BoM) | Ensemble verification | |
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| 16:30 | Richard Eckard (University of Melbourne) | Using climate projections to understand impacts and inform agricultural adaptation | |
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| 16:45 | Pandora Hope (BoM) | Seasonal prediction framework for attribution of extreme events in a changing climate | |
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| 17:00 | Paul Gregory (BoM) | Long range cyclone forecasting using ACCESS-GE and S | |
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| 17:15 | End of day 3 | |||||
A print version of this program is available for download HERE.
The 2018 Workshop book of abstracts is available HERE.
Program updated : 7th December 2018
| DAY 4 – Thursday 29th November | |||||
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| Climate and Water Projections Organiser: Surendra Rauniyar Chair: Scott Power | |||||
| 9:00 | Keynote – Reto Knutti (ETH Zurich) | The value and purpose of the next generation of climate models and ensembles | |
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| 9:45 | Michael Grose (CSIRO) | Ensemble methods in NextGen projections | |
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| 10:00 | Josephine Brown (BoM) | Ensemble methods in northern Australian monsoon projections | |
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| 10:15 | Mitchell Black (BoM) | The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand | |
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| 10:30 – 11:00 | Morning Tea (30 Mins) | |||||
| Chair: Michael Grose | |||||
| 11:00 | Keynote – Gab Abramowitz (University of NSW) | Model dependence in climate ensembles | |
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| 11:45 | Aurel Moise (BoM) | Objective methods for ensemble reducing | |
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| 12:00 | Andrew Dowdy (BoM) | Climate hazards and extreme weather projections for Australia | |
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| 12:15 | Pandora Hope (BoM) | Ensemble selection for hydrological projections preliminary steps | |
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| 12:30 – 13:45 | Lunch (75 Mins) | |||||
| Chair: Pandora Hope | |||||
| 13:45 | Keynote – Berit Arheimer (SMHI) | Experience from using ensemble methods in climate and water services | |
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| 14:30 | Chantal Donnelly (BoM) | Using the EUROCORDEX ensemble to examine the impacts of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming on European hydrology | |
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| 14:45 | Francis Chiew (CSIRO) | Cascading ensemble of uncertainties in climate and hydrological modelling to predict future water availability and river flow characteristics | |
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| 15:00 | Jason Evans (University of NSW) | Ensemble methods in downscaling projections | |
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| 15:15 – 15:45 | Afternoon Tea (30 Mins) | |||||
| Chair: Aurel Moise | |||||
| 15:45 | Dewi Kirono (CSIRO) | Ensemble methods in drought projections | |
NA | NA |
| 16:00 | Surendra Rauniyar (BoM) | Using ensemble in deriving baselines for Victorian water assessment | |
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| 16:15 | Christine Chung (BoM) | Impact of global warming on ENSO-driven rainfall variability in the pacific | |
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| 16:30 | Scott Power (BoM) | Impact of global warming on ENSO precipitation teleconnections | |
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| 16:45 | Rob Colman (BoM) | Using ensembles in climate sensitivity and feedbacks | |
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| 17:00 | End of Workshop | |||||
A print version of this program is available for download HERE.
The 2018 Workshop book of abstracts is available HERE.
Program updated : 7th December 2018
| DAY 5 – 30th November 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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A DAY WITH OUR INTERNATIONAL GUESTS The general gist of this day is for the international speakers to present seminars that either expand upon on their keynote speeches or discuss other topics outside their scope. There should be plenty of time for audience interaction. There will also be space available for more informal side meetings and casual conversations. Four sessions are planned (Room Locations will be displayed at the Workshop Registration Desk on Level 6):
Schedules for the Weather and Climate sessions are in the table below. The Ocean and Seasonal sessions schedule are still to be worked out in detail; more details will be provided at the workshop.
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