South Eastern Area High Seas Forecast

IDY10210
SECURITE

High Seas Forecast for South Eastern Metarea 10
SOUTHEASTERN AREA: 28S/50S, 129E/170E
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
For 24 hours commencing 2300 UTC 25 May 2015

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Part 1 Warnings

Melbourne Gale Warning 3 issued 251825UTC:
Area bounded by 50S092E 42S108E 40S118E 42S136E 45S136E 45S122E 50S116E 50S092E.

New Zealand Storm warning 622 issued at 251800UTC:
Low 940hPa near 53S173W moving northeast 15kt.
1. Within 420 nautical miles of low in sector from south through west to east:
Clockwise 50kt at times.
2. Outside area 1 and within 1080 nautical miles of low in northern quadrant:
Clockwise 40kt at times.
3. Outside areas 1 and 2 and within 720 nautical miles of low in southwest
semicircle: Clockwise 40kt at times.
Storm and gale areas moving with low.

Part 2 Situation at 1800 UTC

Refer to latest warnings.

Ridge [1] 33S129E to high [1] 1030 hPa near 38S145E to high [2] 1028 hPa near
33S156E to 28S170E, forecast 29S129E to high [1] 1027 hPa near 36S148E to
32S156E 28S170E at 260600UTC and 29S129E 36S143E to high [1] 1023 hPa near
36S155E to 31S158E 28S168E at 261800UTC.

Ridge [2] 44S141E 38S145E 41S152E 46S154E 50S152E, forecast 45S144E 36S148E
40S155E 46S156E 50S154E at 260600UTC and 46S149E 36S155E to high [2] 1023 hPa
near 43S157E to 50S159E at 261800UTC.

Ridge [3] developing near 47S128E 50S133E by 261800UTC, forecast near 49S139E
51S142E at 260600UTC and then moving south of the area.

Trough 45S146E 48S144E 50S140E. Forecast 44S151E 47S150E 50S146E at 251800UTC
and 44S154E 50S150E at 260600UTC then weakening.

Cold front [1] west of area, forecast near 34S126E 38S129E 42S129E to low 999
hPa near 47S127E at 260600UTC and 33S132E 41S138E 50S132E at 261800UTC.

Cold front [2] near 48S135E 51S137E moving south of area.

Part 3 Forecast
Refer to latest warnings.

Within 180nm of ridges and 240nm of highs and north of ridge [1]:
Variable winds below 20 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate swell
increasing to moderate to heavy swell near ridge [3] and remainder east of 160E.

Remainder south of ridge [1] outside warning area:
NW quarter winds 15/25 knots west and south of ridge [2] becoming N/NW 20/30
knots by 260600UTC and N quarter 20/30 knots by 261800UTC. Winds tending SW
quarter 15/25 knots within 180nm west of trough until 260600UTC, then easing
and becoming variable 10/20 knots by 261200UTC. SW quarter winds 15/25 knots
remainder east of ridge [2] increasing to 20/30 knots east of line 34S170E
50S163E until 261200UTC. Wind speeds grading 25/33 knots within 120nm of
warning areas. Moderate to rough seas abating to slight to moderate west of
trough by 261200UTC. Moderate to heavy swell.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 240nm of cold fronts,
within 120nm of trough and also area east of 162E south of 30S. Isolated to
scattered showers remainder away from ridge. Visibility reducing below 2nm in
precipitation.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

The next routine forecast will be issued at 09:00 UTC Tuesday.