IDY10210
SECURITE
High Seas Forecast for South Eastern Metarea 10
SOUTHEASTERN AREA: 28S/50S, 129E/170E
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 27 September 2016
PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
Part 1 Warnings
Melbourne Storm Force Wind Warning 4 issued 270633UTC:
Area bounded by 32S114E 31S133E 38S133E 39S131E 44S133E 39S110E 32S114E.
Melbourne Gale Warning 5 issued 270637UTC:
Bounded by 41S156E 39S156E 36S159E 37S160E 41S156E.
Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC
Refer to latest warnings.
Ridge [1] 38S147E 44S151E 50S157E. Forecast 38S147E 50S158E at 271800UTC and
28S155E 39S151E 44S151E 50S159E at 280600UTC.
Ridge [2] 33S134E 33S129E. Forecast 38S144E 43S138E 45S131E at 271800UTC and
44S151E 50S149E at 280600UTC.
Ridge [3] 28S155E 31S157E 35S157E. Forecast 28S165E 33S166E at 271800UTC and
then weakening.
Trough [1] from 32S153E 36S154E to low [1] 996 hPa near 41S158E to low [2] 1002
hPa near 44S164E to 50S168E. Forecast 28S156E 34S161E to low [1] 996 hPa near
40S159E to low [2] 1002 hPa near 45S162E to 50S163E at 271800UTC and 28S165E
34S166E to low [1] 999 hPa near 37S161E to low [2] 1001 hPa near 45S162E to
50S163E at 280600UTC.
Trough [2] 41S158E 39S163E 35S166E 33S170E. Forecast 40S159E 33S170E at
271800UTC and 34S166E 33S170E at 280600UTC
Trough [3] 44S164E 38S170E. Forecast 45S162E 38S170E at 271800UTC and then near
stationary.
Cold front [1] 35S135E 41S142E 48S142E 50S139E. Forecast 42S150E 50S146E at
271800UTC and then weakening by 280000UTC.
Cold front [2] west of the area and forecast 31S129E to low [3] 986 hPa near
39S127E to 50S133E at 271800UTC and 34S138E 39S134E to low [3] 973 hPa near
39S131E to 50S139E at 280600UTC.
Part 3 Forecast
Refer to latest warnings.
Within 120nm of ridges, and also east of trough [1] between troughs [2] and [3]:
Variable winds below 20 knots with slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate
swell increasing to moderate to heavy south of 40S west of 140E.
Remainder east of trough [1], outside warning area:
W quarter winds shifting E quarter south of trough [3] tending NE quarter
within 180nm southeast of trough [3]. Winds turning clockwise within 180nm of
lows. Wind speeds 15/25 knots increasing to 20/30 knots within 120nm of warning
area. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell.
Remainder east and northeast of ridge [1], outside warning area:
SW quarter winds shifting S quarter south of 40S and tending SE quarter within
240nm southwest of trough [1] south of 40S. Winds turning clockwise within
240nm of lows. Wind speeds 15/25 knots increasing to 20/30 knots within area
bounded by 30S154E 30S166E 42S157E 37S150E 30S154E within 240nm southwest of
trough [1]. Winds grading to 25/33 knots within 120nm of warning area. Moderate
to rough seas. Low to moderate swell.
Remainder, outside warning area:
NW quarter winds tending W quarter east of front [1] north of 42S and shifting
N quarter north of ridge [2] east of front [2]. S quarter winds west of front
[2] shifting W quarter west of front [2] north of low [3]. Winds turning
clockwise within 300nm of low [3]. Wind speeds 15/25 knots increasing to 20/30
knots within 180nm of front [1] south of 42S. Winds grading to 25/33 knots
within 120nm of warning area. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate swell increasing
to moderate to heavy southwest of front [1].
Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 240nm of lows,
troughs and cold fronts. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remainder
west of front [2]. Isolated showers remainder away from ridges. Visibility
reducing to below 2nm in precipitation.
WEATHER MELBOURNE
The next routine forecast will be issued at 21:00 UTC Tuesday.
