Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 23 January 2017
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 26 January 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A monsoon trough is developing over the Top End of the Northern Territory and the Kimberley. A tropical low, 1005 hPa, is developing over the western Gulf of Carpentaria near Groote Eylandt.

The low is likely to move in a west to southwesterly direction across the Top End and northern Kimberley during Tuesday and Wednesday. During Thursday (Low Cyclone Rating) the system is likely to be moving over the northern Kimberley, with some models having the system reaching the west Kimberley late in the day. However it is likely that the tropical low would not have remained long enough over water to develop.

There is a High risk of a tropical cyclone this weekend, with most model guidance developing the low while moving off the west Kimberley coast.


The likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Very Low
Thursday:
Low

A weak small tropical low around 12S 105E at 1pm Monday. All the models are consistent in not intensifying the system. Christmas Island may experience moderate to fresh northwesterly winds and moderate to heavy rainfall during the week as the system moves in the vicinity of the island. It is likely to dissipate later in the week.

There are no other significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are expected to develop over the next three days.


The likelihood of another tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Very Low
Thursday:
Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/