Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 1:19 pm WST on Tuesday 9 February 2016
for the period until midnight WST Friday 12 February 2016.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A tropical low is forming within the monsoon trough to the west-northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands in the area near 11S 094E.

The risk of this tropical low developing into a tropical cyclone increases as conditions become favourable for development during Thursday and Friday. The system is expected to move slowly eastwards over the next couple of days. The system may reach tropical cyclone intensity late Thursday, but more likely Friday in the vicinity of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Over the weekend the system is likely to move in a southwest direction away from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.


Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region on:

Wednesday:
Low
Thursday:
Moderate
Friday:
High

There are no other significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are expected to develop over the next three days.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Wednesday:
Very Low
Thursday:
Very Low
Friday:
Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/