Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:24 pm WST on Wednesday 4 March 2015
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 7 March 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

At midday on Wednesday a weak tropical low lies off the Kimberley coast near
15S 120E. This system is producing shower and thunderstorm activity and is
clearly evident in satellite imagery but it has a very weak circulation at the
surface and a disorganised cloud field. It is expected to track steadily to the
west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coastline, during Wednesday and
Thursday, remaining below cyclone intensity. During Friday it will begin to
track westwards away from the coast into the Indian Ocean. This system has a
low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone but it is likely to produce
strong winds (below gale force) on the southern side.



Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday        Low        
Friday          Low        
Saturday        Low        


There are no other significant tropical lows in the Western Region and none are
expected to develop in the next three days. The cyclone risk is likely to
increase during next week.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday        Very Low   
Friday          Very Low   
Saturday        Very Low   

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.