Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 12:40 pm WST on Thursday 15 November 2018
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 18 November 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


Ex Tropical Cyclone Bouchra lies near 7S 91E, about 850 kilometres northwest of Cocos Island and is currently outside the Western region. There is a slight chance the system may reintensify and move into the far northwestern parts of the region for a period during Friday or Saturday. If the system does enter the region, it will be for a short period of time and quickly move out of the region in a southwesterly direction.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:
Low
Saturday:
Low
Sunday:
Very Low

Another tropical low lies near 10S 103E, about 240 kilometres west of Christmas Island. This low is expected to move in a southwesterly direction over the next few days, away from Christmas Island. There is a moderate chance that the system may reach Tropical Cyclone strength during Friday, with a low chance on Saturday. If the system becomes a Tropical Cyclone, it is likely to pass well to the south of Cocos Island, over open waters.

There are no other lows in the Western region and none are expected to develop in the next seven days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:
Moderate
Saturday:
Low
Sunday:
Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/