Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:05 pm WST on Saturday 19 January 2019
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 22 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A tropical low (11U) was located near 13S 105E at 1pm WST Saturday, which is about 300 km south southwest of Christmas Island. The low is weak at the moment and unlikely to develop over the next three days. The system is forecast to continue moving westwards and is very unlikely to move close to the West Australian coast. On Sunday or Monday it might move close to the Cocos Islands bringing a period of fresh to strong winds and periods of heavy rainfall.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:
Very Low
Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Very Low

A trough lies across waters north of the Kimberley and Northern Territory. A weak tropical low is forming within the trough north of the Northern Territory and is forecast to move generally southwest over the next few days, possibly moving into the region in the middle of next week. The risk of this system developing into a tropical cyclone increases further later in the week.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:
Very Low
Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/