Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 12:57 pm WST on Thursday 11 February 2016
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 14 February 2016.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


At midday WST a tropical low was located near 10S 095E, to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

The risk of this tropical low developing into a tropical cyclone increases over the weekend and the system may reach tropical cyclone intensity late on Saturday or on Sunday to the west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

The system is likely to be slow moving in the vicinity of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands today and on Friday. Over the weekend the system should move in a southwest direction away from the Islands.


Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region on:

Friday:
Low
Saturday:
Moderate
Sunday:
High

There has been an increase in thunderstorm activity to the south of Java and there is the chance that a tropical low will form in that area over the next few days. Conditions become more favourable for development for a period over the weekend and there is a small chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone on Sunday.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:
Very Low
Saturday:
Very Low
Sunday:
Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/