IDW10800 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region Issued at 1:24 pm WST on Wednesday 4 March 2015 for the period until midnight WST Saturday 7 March 2015. Existing Cyclones in the Western Region: Nil. Potential Cyclones: At midday on Wednesday a weak tropical low lies off the Kimberley coast near 15S 120E. This system is producing shower and thunderstorm activity and is clearly evident in satellite imagery but it has a very weak circulation at the surface and a disorganised cloud field. It is expected to track steadily to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coastline, during Wednesday and Thursday, remaining below cyclone intensity. During Friday it will begin to track westwards away from the coast into the Indian Ocean. This system has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone but it is likely to produce strong winds (below gale force) on the southern side. Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on: Thursday Low Friday Low Saturday Low There are no other significant tropical lows in the Western Region and none are expected to develop in the next three days. The cyclone risk is likely to increase during next week. Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on: Thursday Very Low Friday Very Low Saturday Very Low NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day. Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50% Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50% The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.