Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 7 December 2016
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 10 December 2016.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A trough lies to the south of Java with a weak low near 12.0S 113.0E. The low is forecast to track slowly southwest of the next few days before weakening. There is a slight risk for it to track westwards and in this case there is a chance it could develop into a tropical cyclone over the weekend or early next week. The environment remains only marginally favourable for development under this scenario, so the risk of it reaching cyclone intensity is Low from Saturday.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:
Very Low
Friday:
Very Low
Saturday:
Low

There are no other tropical systems in the Western Region and none are expected to develop over the next three days.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:
Very Low
Friday:
Very Low
Saturday:
Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/