Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:04 pm WST on Friday 16 November 2018
for the period until midnight WST Monday 19 November 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


Ex Tropical Cyclone Bouchra lies near 10S 91E, about 635 kilometres west northwest of Cocos Island. The system has weakened significantly over the last 24 hours and is unlikely to reintensify whilst in the far northwestern parts of the region during Friday or early Saturday. The system is forecast to steer in a southwesterly direction and move out of the region during Saturday.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:
Very Low
Sunday:
Very Low
Monday:
Very Low

Another tropical low lies near 13S 102E, about 455 kilometres southwest of Christmas Island. This low will continue to move in a southwesterly direction over the next few days, away from Christmas Island. There is only slight chance that the system may reach Tropical Cyclone strength during Saturday. If the system becomes a Tropical Cyclone, it is likely to pass well to the south of Cocos Island, over open waters.

There are no other lows in the Western region and none are expected to develop in the next seven days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:
Low
Sunday:
Very Low
Monday:
Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/