Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:17 pm WST on Saturday 28 March 2015
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 31 March 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

At 1:00pm WST Friday the remnants of ex-Tropical Cyclone Nathan were located to
the north of the west Kimberley. Due to unfavourable environmental conditions
the system is very unlikely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone. Although the
system is not expected to redevelop, winds on the southern side of the low are
forecast to be between 20 to 30 knots during Saturday and Sunday, and squally
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected near the system, particularly on
the southern side. On Monday heavy rainfall is forecast for the west Pilbara,
west Gascoyne and adjacent offshore regions on Monday as the remaining moisture
from the system moves over the region and interacts with an upper level trough.

There are no other significant lows in the Western Region and none are expected
to develop in the next three days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Very Low   
Tuesday         Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.