Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 5 December 2016
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 8 December 2016.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A weak tropical low is situated near 10.3S 115.5E, to the south of Bali. This low is expected to remain near stationary through until late Tuesday before tracking slowly southwards on Wednesday and Thursday. The low is then forecast to take a more south-westerly track and may develop into a tropical cyclone over waters between Indonesia and Western Australia on Thursday. Conditions become unfavourable to support a tropical cyclone from Friday onwards, so any particular system is expected to weaken thereafter. At this point, if the low reaches tropical cyclone intensity, it is unlikely to affect the Western Australian mainland.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Low
Thursday:
Moderate

There are no other tropical systems in the Western Region and none are expected to develop over the next three days.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Very Low
Thursday:
Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/