Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:09 pm WST on Wednesday 10 February 2016
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 13 February 2016.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A tropical low is forming within the monsoon trough to the west-northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands in the area near 11S 094E. The low has struggled to develop over the last 24 hours, and is expected to continue to have problems in a marginal environment during Thursday.

The risk of this tropical low developing into a tropical cyclone increases as conditions become favourable for development during Friday and over the weekend. The system is likely to be near stationary to the northwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands over the next couple of days.

The system may reach tropical cyclone intensity on Saturday in the vicinity of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. On Sunday the model guidance generally agrees on the system moving in a southwest direction away from the Islands.


Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region on:

Thursday:
Very Low
Friday:
Moderate
Saturday:
High

There are no other significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are expected to develop over the next three days.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:
Very Low
Friday:
Very Low
Saturday:
Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/