Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 26 April 2017
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 29 April 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A weak tropical low was located near 7.8S 131.4E at midday, about 500km north of Darwin. It is forecast to continue moving west southwest to be over waters north of the Kimberley on Friday and during the weekend. It is expected to slowly develop and may reach tropical cyclone intensity later Thursday or Friday. It is then likely to weaken during the weekend and early next week.

Even if the low does not develop into a tropical cyclone, gales are likely on the southern side of the low from early Thursday until later Saturday.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:
Very Low.
Friday:
Low.
Saturday:
Moderate.

There no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop during the next three days.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:
Very Low.
Friday:
Very Low.
Saturday:
Very Low.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/