Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Saturday 21 January 2017
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 24 January 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


All models generally agree on a monsoon trough developing over the Top End of the Northern Territory and the Kimberley by Monday. Some of the models have a tropical low developing over the western Top End on Tuesday. However, recent model guidance is favouring the scenario where a low develops over the eastern Top End or in the Gulf of Carpentaria, before moving in a west to southwesterly direction across the Top End and possibly into the region on Thursday or as late as Friday. The risk of this system reach tropical cyclone strength in the western region is likely to increase mid to late working week.


The likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:
Very Low
Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Very Low

At 1pm WST on Saturday a weak tropical low was located near 12.5S 100.7E, near the far northwest of the region. All the models are consistent in not intensifying the system. It is likely to dissipate during the week.

There are no other significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are expected to develop over the next three days.


The likelihood of another tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:
Very Low
Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/