Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 26 March 2015
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 29 March 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

At 1:00pm WST the remnants of ex-Tropical Cyclone Nathan was located over
northern parts of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and is forecast to move into the
Western Region (i.e. west of longitude 125E) on Friday. Due to how
significantly the system weakened as it moved over the Northern Territory and
the somewhat unfavourable environmental conditions that it is currently moving
through, it is expected to be below tropical cyclone intensity when it reaches
the Western Region. The majority of computer model guidance suggests that the
system will remain below tropical cyclone intensity, however there is a window
of time between Friday and Sunday when conditions are marginally more
favourable and there is a slight risk of redevelopment.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday          Low        
Saturday        Low        
Sunday          Low        


There are no other significant lows in the Western Region and none are expected
to develop in the next three days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday          Very Low   
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Very Low   

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.