Inflow to Lake Eppalock 30 times average

box and whisker graph

Inflow box and whisker graph

Inflow to Lake Eppalock in Victoria's Campaspe Basin was nearly 30 times the average and four and a half times the highest volume ever recorded for November to January.

Recent and historical data for 21 sites in the south east Murray-Darling Basin are a key feature of the Bureau's new Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Service. Recorded streamflows are plotted against the forecast and show the inflow for the past 12 months compared to the historical record for those months. This is shown as a traditional box and whisker plot.

More water to flow

Forecasts for the February to April period suggest that higher than average flows are the most likely outcome. The catchments remain saturated and as this is traditionally a low flow period, the flow required to reach the high flow threshold is less than preceding seasons.

Seasonal forecasts performing well

Recent forecasts have performed strongly with forecasts for the seasons starting in August, September, October and November 2010 correctly predicting more than 80% of the observed streamflow terciles. This is shown in the graph and on the Hit and Miss graphic on the streamflow website. The skill or confidence levels for the forecasts will decrease over the next few months during Autumn but should still provide valuable guidance for water users in the area.