Mixed rainfall predictions for spring

National map of probability of exceeding median rainfall

National map of probability of exceeding median rainfall

The Bureau's September–November seasonal outlook for spring shows a moderate chance of above normal rainfall in parts of southwest Western Australia and southwest Queensland. There is also an increased chance of drier conditions through parts of central to southeast South Australia and adjacent areas of western New South Wales and Victoria.

Neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are favoured to continue at least through the coming spring. While there remains some chance of La Niña reforming, neutral conditions are the most likely outcome, with the probability of an El Niño forming in 2011 considered remote.

According to Bureau's National Climate Centre, if La Niña was to form over the coming months, there are currently no indications to suggest it would be as strong as the event of 2010–11.

During spring, warmer than normal days are likely for northern Australia and a small region in the southeast, while warmer than normal nights are expected over most of Australia. Cooler night-time temperatures are forecast for eastern Queensland.

This outlook is based on the current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans. The model uses two indices that reflect the amplitude and phase of the ENSO and the status of the Indian Ocean.