Wetter season favoured for northern Australia

National map of probability of exceeding median rainfall

National map of probability of exceeding median rainfall

The Bureau's seasonal rainfall outlook for October–December 2011 inclusive shows that a wetter than usual period is favoured over northern Australia as well as in western parts of Western Australia. The wet season in northern Australia traditionally runs from November–April, so this outlook favours a firm start to the wet season.

In contrast, drier times are expected over Tasmania and southern Victoria for the remainder of 2011.

According to the Bureau's National Climate Centre, steady cooling of the central Pacific Ocean has increased the chance of La Niña returning during 2011.

If a La Niña event does form, current indications suggest it will be weaker than the strong 2010–11 event. La Niña events raise the odds of above average rainfall across the north and east of Australia, but don't guarantee it.

The Bureau's latest seasonal temperature outlook favours warmer temperatures than usual for most of Australia for the remainder of 2011.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks are based on the current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans. This latest outlook is strongly influenced by ongoing above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.