Odds on wet

National map of probability of exceeding median rainfall

National map of probability of exceeding median rainfall

The Bureau's seasonal rainfall outlook for November 2011–January 2012 favours a wetter than usual period over large parts of northern, eastern and southwest Australia.

According to the Bureau's National Climate Centre, the central Pacific is in the developing stages of a weak, late forming La Niña. Current observations and model predictions suggest this is unlikely to reach the strength of the 2010–11 La Niña event. La Niña events raise the odds of above average rainfall across the north and east of Australia, but don't guarantee it.

The Bureau's latest seasonal temperature outlook favours warmer than normal days for far northern Australia and the southeast. Cooler days are favoured for southeast Queensland and northeast NSW.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks are based on the current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans. This latest outlook is strongly influenced by ongoing above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.