Wet summer for Western Australia

National map of probability of exceeding median rainfall

National map of probability of exceeding median rainfall

According to the Bureau's National Climate Centre, La Niña is now established in the tropical Pacific, though of weaker strength than the 2010/2011 La Niña event. La Niña events raise the odds of above average rainfall across the north and east of Australia, but don't guarantee it.

Typical of La Niña, there is an increased risk of tropical cyclone activity in Australian waters during the Nov-Apr period. Most ocean regions surrounding Australia have a 60–65% chance of more tropical cyclones than average.

The Bureau's latest seasonal temperature outlook favours warmer summer days for southeastern Australia. Both warmer summer days and nights are favoured in the far north of Australia as well as southern Western Australia.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks are based on the current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans. The main driver for this rainfall outlook is the ongoing warm Indian Ocean, although this outlook is also consistent with the La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean.