What are the chances of severe weather this summer?

Map of Australia

Seasonal bushfire outlook is above normal for large parts of southern Australia

The severe weather outlook combines various indicators to give insight into the risk of bushfire, tropical cyclone, storms and flood. Here is a summary of the outlook for the coming season.

The bushfire assessment indicates a high risk of grassland fires over inland Australia for the coming season. Higher rainfall over the past two years means there is above average growth of grassy fuels. This, combined with drying caused by below average winter rainfall over large parts of western, central and southern Australia, indicates a seasonal bushfire outlook that is above normal for large parts of southern Australia.

The tropical cyclone outlook suggests a 73 per cent chance of a below average number of cyclones. The average number of tropical cyclones for the Australian region is 11 to 12, although not all of those reach landfall. The outlook also suggests a later start to the cyclone season.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to return to more normal numbers. In recent years, a lack of strong, dry winds in the upper atmosphere caused by concurrent La Niña events has decreased the risk of severe thunderstorms, but we are likely to experience normal numbers this season. The risk from wind and large hail will also return to normal. Similarly, flood risk is likely to return to normal after two years of increased risk; however, flash floods and inundation can happen any time in any conditions.

Map of Australia

Average number of severe thunderstorms within 150 km of capital cities