Burdekin: Outlook 2016-17
Average rainfall during the typically wetter months of the year is expected across the Burdekin region, which will contribute to an increase in surface water storage. Total water assets are expected to remain in surplus at 30 June 2017. Water use is expected to decrease during the year, taking into account expected climate conditions combined with reduced demand, particularly in the irrigation areas.
Future prospects
This section looks forward 12 months and considers what water inflows and commitments might affect the region's water resources during the 2016–17 year. Figure S9 shows that there is a surplus of available water assets and future water rights over water liabilities and future water commitments that are expected to be settled within 12 months of the reporting date.
Figure S8 Water outlook for the Burdekin region for 2016–17
Expected inflows
At the time of publication, rainfall over the Burdekin region during the first 6 months of the 2016–17 year (July–December) was above average (Figure S9).
Figure S9 Rainfall deciles for the Burdekin region from July to December 2016
The next few months, particularly January–March, is usually when the most rainfall occurs in the region and when the majority of the total annual flow in the rivers typically occurs. According to the Bureau of Meteorology's climate outlook (from January 2017), Australia's climate will be influenced by neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which is likely to contribute to average rainfall across the region during the wet season. Therefore, given the current relatively wet soil moisture conditions in December 2016 (see the Bureau's Australian Landscape Water Balance product) attributed to the early wet season rainfall, streamflows and aquifer recharge are expected to be higher than they were during the 2015–16 year.
Overall, the combined expected precipitation (approximately 100,000 ML) and net river inflows into the storages (approximately 1,800,000 ML) should exceed the expected evaporation from the storages (approximately 300,000 ML) and storage overflow (approximately 700,000 ML) during the year, resulting in an estimated net storage inflow of 900,000 ML.
Future commitments
The expected diversions and extractions are based on water use data for the 2015–16 year; however, it is expected that rainfall may decrease the dependence on surface water and groundwater resources for urban water supply and agricultural purposes.
Contingent water assets and contingent water liabilities
Contingent water assets
The Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines sets extraction limits on groundwater aquifers to protect groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Only water above the prescribed minimum water-table level is recognised as a water asset in the account. The volume of water that is beyond this extraction limit is considered a contingent water asset for aquifers in the region; however, similar to the recognition of groundwater assets, there is currently not enough information available regarding groundwater resources in the Burdekin region to allow for a volumetric estimate.
Contingent water liabilities
There are no contingent water liabilities in the region.