Melbourne: Outlook for 2018 Account
as at 1 June 2018
Below-average rainfall conditions were observed across most of the Melbourne region during the first 11 months of the 2017–18 year. This is likely to contribute to a decrease in end of year storage, following an increase in 2016–17. Water use is expected to be higher than last year.
For further information on the expected inflows and future commitments for the region during the 2017–18 year scroll down this page.
Future prospects
Figure S20 Water outlook for the Melbourne region for 2017–18
- There is a surplus of available water assets and future water rights over water liabilities and future water commitments that are expected to be settled within 12 months of the reporting date.
Expected inflows
Figure S21 Rainfall deciles for the Melbourne region from July 2017–May 2018
- Rainfall during the first 11 months of the 2017–18 year (July–May) was below average across most of the region. Storages were 59% full at 1 June 2018 compared to 65% full at the same time last year.
- According to the Bureau of Meteorology's climate outlook (from 31 May 2018), below-average pressure over the Tasman Sea, associated with warmer ocean temperatures, are likely to weaken the westerlies that bring rain systems to southeast Australia during the winter months. This means the region is likely to experience below-average rainfall in June 2018.
- The expected inflows for 2017–18 may be similar to the 2015–16 year, a period when similar below-average rainfall conditions were experienced.
Future commitments
- 2017–18 rainfall is likely to be less than last year, which could mean users will have an increased reliance on water sourced directly from surface water and groundwater stores.
- With surface water availability likely to be less than last year and less desalinated water production planned in 2017–18, there may be an increased reliance on inter-region delivery from the Thomson Reservoir to meet urban demand.