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National Water Account 2018

Canberra: Outlook for 2019 Account

as at 20 February 2019

  • Rainfall conditions were average across most of the region during the 2018–19 year to date.
  • Average rainfall conditions are expected for the remainder of 2018–19.
  • Storage levels at 30 June 2019 are expected to be less than the same time last year.

 

Diagram showing expected rainfall (below-average expected), storage (decrease expected) and water use (similar to last year) conditions for the Canberra region for the 2018–19 year.

 

For further information on the expected inflows and future commitments for the region during the 2018–19 year scroll down this page.

 

Future prospects

Figure S20 Water outlook for the Canberra region for 2018–19

Figure S15 Water outlook for the Canberra region for 2018–19

 

  • Outflows and discharges from the region's storages are expected to exceed inflows, which is likely to result in a decrease in water assets at the end of the year.

 

Expected inflows


Figure S16 Financial year-to-date and monthly rainfall deciles for the Canberra region during the 2018–19 year

 

  • Total rainfall over the 2018–19 year to date was average across most of the region and below average in the western part of the region.
  • Rainfall in December 2018 and February 2019 was above average across most of the region; all other months had average to below-average rainfall.

 


Figure S17 Storage levels for the Canberra region during the 2018–19 year so far compared to the same time last year

 

  • Storages were 65% full at 23 January 2019, compared to 80% full at the same time last year.
  • Except for a small increase in storage levels in December 2018 following high rainfall during this month, storages have declined steadily from 70% full at the end of the 2017–18 year.

 

Figure S23 Chance of exceeding median rainfall for the Canberra region for February–April 2019
Figure S18 Chance of exceeding median rainfall for the Canberra region for March–May 2019
 

  • According to the Bureau of Meteorology's climate outlook (from 14 February 2019), rainfall during the next few months (March–May 2019) is likely to be near the median for the region.
  • The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is currently at El Niño watch, meaning there is a 50% chance of El Niño developing in autumn 2019.
  • The average to below-average rainfall for the year to date, combined with the average rainfall outlook, means that above-average rainfall conditions are unlikely for the region in 2018–19.

 

Future commitments

  • Water use in 2018–19 is expected to be similar to the previous year as it generally changes little from year to year.