Melbourne: Outlook for 2019 Account
as at 20 February 2019
- Rainfall was mostly below average across the region during the 2018–19 year to date.
- Average rainfall conditions are expected for the remainder of 2018–19.
- Storage levels at 30 June 2019 are expected to be less than the same time last year.
For further information on the expected inflows and future commitments for the region during the 2018–19 year scroll down this page.
Future prospects
Figure S17 Water outlook for the Melbourne region for 2018–19
- Outflows and discharges from the region's storages are expected to exceed inflows, which is likely to result in a decrease in water assets at the end of the year.
Expected inflows
Figure S18 Financial year-to-date and monthly rainfall deciles for the Melbourne region during the 2018–19 year
- Total rainfall during the 2018–19 year to date was below average across most of the region.
- During the typically wetter month of September, rainfall was well below average; some parts of the region experienced their lowest rainfall on record for that month.
Figure S19 Storage levels for the Melbourne region during the 2018–19 year so far compared to the same time last year
- Storages were 60% full at 11 February 2019 compared to 68% full at the same time last year.
- Storage levels peaked in September 2018 following the winter rainfall; however, the peak in storage was lower than last year.
Figure S20 Chance of exceeding median rainfall for the Melbourne region for March–May 2019
- According to the Bureau of Meteorology's climate outlook (from 14 February 2019), rainfall during the next few months (March–May 2019) is likely to be near the median for the region.
- The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is currently at El Niño watch, meaning there is a 50% chance of El Niño developing in autumn.
- Total rainfall for the region in 2018–19 is likely to be below average.
Future commitments
- Water use in 2018–19 is expected to be similar to the previous year as it generally changes little from year to year.
- With surface water availability likely to be less than last year and no change in the desalinated water production planned in 2018–19, there may be an increased reliance on inter-region delivery from the Thomson Reservoir to meet urban demand.