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Melbourne: Outlook for 2022 Account

as at 15 February 2022

  • Rainfall is likely to be average during the 2021–22 year.
  • Inflows into the region's storages are expected to be lower than last year.

Schematic representation of the Melbourne region. In 2021–22, annual rainfall is expected to be average. End-of-year storage volume is likely to decrease from last year. Water use is likely to be similar to last year.

For further information on the outlook for the region during the 2021–22 year scroll down this page or click on the links below:

 

Current water levels

  • Rainfall was above average across the region during July 2020–January 2021.
  • At 15 February 2022, storages were 87% full compared to 70% full at the same time last year.
  • More information on current storage levels in the region is available on the Bureau of Meteorology's Water Storage website.

 

Climate outlook

Map of Melbourne region showing the spatial distribution of the chance of exceeding median rainfall in percentage categories for March-May 2022. Rainfall has a 45–55% chance of exceeding median rainfall during March–May 2022 across almost the entire region. Key aspects of the rainfall map are described in the text below the figure.
Figure S9 Chance of exceeding median rainfall for the Melbourne region for March–May 2022

 

  • According to the Bureau of Meteorology's climate outlook (from 10 February 2022), rainfall is expected to be average during the next three months (March-May 2022).
  • The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Niña phase and is likely to end in mid-autumn 2022.
  • Total annual rainfall for 2021–22 is likely to be average and total inflows into the region's storages are expected to be lower than 2020–21.

 

Future commitments

  • Water use is expected to be similar to 2020–21, due to the likelihood of similar rainfall conditions across the region compared to last year.