Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: July–September 2015

  • Low streamflows more likely for July-September
  • Near-median streamflows more likely in northern and southeastern locations
  • Low June streamflows recorded at half of forecast locations
  • ENSO Tracker status: EL NIÑO

Streamflow forecast for July-September

An extra 40 locations have been added to the Seasonal Streamflow Forecast service this month. The majority of these are in Western Australia (17) and Tasmania (15). There are also new locations in the Northern Territory (3), South Australia (3) and Queensland (2).

For July to September 2015, low streamflows are more likely at 62 locations. Near-median flows are more likely at 50 locations and high flows at 12 locations. Forecast skill is high across northern Australia and moderate across southern Australia. Due to very low model skill, forecasts have not been issued at 16 locations and we suggest using climatology for these.

Following wildfire damage to the Shannon River gauge at Dog Pool (Western Australia), observations and forecasts will be unavailable until early 2016.

Use the map below to zoom and pan to view the forecast locations. Zoom in to view pie chart tercile forecasts, and then click on a pie chart to go directly to the latest forecast.

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.

New information video

Outlook video

  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

June catchment conditions

Low flows were recorded at 70 of 140 locations across Australia. Near-median flows were recorded at 54 locations and high flows at 16 locations, generally in southeastern and northern Australia.

June rainfall was above average for much of the Northern Territory, and large parts of Queensland and New South Wales - including some of the drought affected areas. Rainfall was 36% above average over the Murray-Darling Basin. However, deep soil moisture remains below average across Queensland and northern New South Wales.

Rainfall was below average for much of Western Australia, coastal South Australia, a large part of central Victoria, and northern Tasmania. For more detail about June rainfall read our monthly climate summary. Deep soil moisture remains below average in central and western Victoria, but above average in far eastern Victoria and the lower New South Wales Coast.

Climate influences

The ENSO Tracker was upgraded to EL NIÑO status on 12 May 2015.

El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall across eastern Australia in winter and spring, and also warmer-than-normal daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. Our understanding ENSO video provides more information on how El Niño impacts our climate and weather.

Get the latest El Niño update in our fortnightly ENSO Wrap-Up. Find out about likely seasonal rainfall conditions in our current Rainfall outlook. For a range of other detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information.

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