Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: January–March 2015



  • Low streamflows more likely
  • Low streamflows recorded in December
  • The El Niño Southern Oscillation tracker status at ALERT level

Streamflow forecast - January to March


For the January to March 2015 forecast period, low streamflows are more likely at 35 of the 41 locations where skill is acceptable. High flows and near median flows are forecast at one and five locations respectively. The forecast skill scores for the January to March period are low or very low for most locations. Due to very low skill scores, the forecast has not been issued at 33 locations. The monthly Climate and Water Outlook video covers rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the next three months and beyond.


Australia Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula Northern Territory, or click on the rectangles on the Australia map below to select a particular region. Then click on the pie charts to go directly to the most recent forecasts.

New information video



Outlook video

Cape York Peninsula Northern Queensland Southern Queensland South Australia Northern New South Wales Southern New South Wales Victoria Northern Territory Map of Australian forecast sites.

Victoria
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January–March 2015

Tercile forecast for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Murray River at Biggara (High skill)Tercile forecast for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park (High skill)Tercile forecast for Ovens River at Bright (High skill)Tercile forecast for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Acheron River at Taggerty (High skill)Tercile forecast for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Goulburn River at Dohertys (High skill)Tercile forecast for Tambo River at Swifts Creek (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Wonnangatta River at Waterford (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Latrobe River at Willow Grove (High skill)Tercile forecast for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Lake Eildon (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Graceburn Creek inflow at Graceburn Weir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to O'Shannassy Reservoir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Upper Yarra Reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Thomson Reservoir (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for the Victorian catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January–March 2015

Tercile forecast for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara (High skill)Tercile forecast for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd (High skill)Tercile forecast for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper (High skill)Tercile forecast for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac (High skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook (High skill)Tercile forecast for Cotter River at Gingera (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gudgenby at Tennent (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Muttama Creek at Coolac (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Shoalhaven River at Warri (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Maragle Creek at Maragle (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Tuross River at Tuross Vale (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Southern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January–March 2015

Tercile forecast for Richmond River at Wiangaree (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Halls Creek at Bingara (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Turon River at Sofala (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie (Very low skill and missing antecedent condition data)Tercile forecast for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Namoi River at North Cuerindi (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Barnard River above Barry (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Wollomombi River at Coninside (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Coxs River at Island Hill (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Northern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January–March 2015

Tercile forecast for Bloomfield River at China Camp (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Wild River at Silver Valley (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Gregory River at Riversleigh (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Herbert River at Abergowrie (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Barron River at Picnic Crossing (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January–March 2015

Tercile forecast for Swan Creek at Swanfels (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Stanley River at Peachester (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Emu Creek at Emu Vale (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for Southern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Cape York Peninsula
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January–March 2015

Tercile forecast for Coen River at Coen Racecourse (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Coalseam Creek at Laura River (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for Cape York Peninsula. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Territory
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January–March 2015

Tercile forecast for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Territory. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours
  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.


December catchment conditions

Low December streamflows were recorded at 51 of 74 locations in eastern Australia. Near median streamflows were recorded at 14 locations and high streamflows were recorded at eight locations. There are missing December data for the location Abercrombie River at Abercrombie in the Lachlan basin.

December rainfall was below average for the Cape York Peninsula, large parts of the west of Western Australia, southern South Australia and western to central Victoria. Rainfall was above average for the northeast of Western Australia, most of the Northern Territory, the southern half of Queensland and along the east coast. Rainfall was 24% above average nationally. The Murray-Darling basin received 28% above average rainfall for December. State-wide rainfall statistics and maps are now available online.

Climate influences

El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean weakened during late December to early January, after being close to or exceeding El Niño thresholds for several weeks. Despite this easing, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker status remains at El Niño ALERT. Climate models generally indicate little significant change over the next two to three months, with warmer than average sea surface temperatures persisting in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The climate outlook video explains how to interpret the climate outlook information to assist decision-making.


For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.


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