Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: August–October 2019

  • Mostly low streamflows likely.
  • Low flows observed at 56% of locations in July. Near-median and high flows mostly in northeastern and southeastern regions.
  • Indian Ocean temperature patterns continue as key Australian climate influence.

Streamflow forecast for August–October 2019

For August–October 2019, low streamflows are more likely at 116 locations, spread across Australia. Near-median and high flows are likely at 62 and 21 locations respectively, mainly in northeastern and southeastern regions of the country. For this time of year, 79% of locations have moderate to high skill, while 21% of locations have low to very low skill, mostly in the southeastern regions.

Forecasts have not been issued for 16 locations, due to very low model skill or missing observed data. We suggest using the observed climatology for these locations.

Use the map below to zoom and pan to view the forecast locations. Zoom in to view pie chart tercile forecasts, and then click on a pie chart to go directly to the latest forecast.

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.

Information video

Outlook video

  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

July 2019 catchment conditions

Low streamflows were recorded at 118 locations, across Australia. Near-median and high flows were recorded at 55 and 37 locations respectively–mostly in northeastern and southwestern regions.

July rainfall was below to very much below average across most of New South Wales, extending into much of southern Queensland, and parts of Victoria. Rainfall for the month was also below average for nearly all of South Australia, much of Western Australia, and the southern half of the Northern Territory. Rainfall was above average for large parts of northern Queensland, and much of western Tasmania.

Above-average actual evapotranspiration (AET) occurred in large areas along the north coast of Queensland, southern parts of Western Australia, and much of western Tasmania. Below-average AET occurred across most of the country, where modelled lower-layer soil moisture (10–100cm) is below to very much below average.

For more details on July rainfall across Australia, read our monthly Climate Summary and Drought Statement. For more information on July soil moisture and evapotranspiration across Australia, access the Australian Landscape Water Balance site.

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral, but sea surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean are likely to remain the key influence on Australia's climate for the coming months.

Climate models forecast positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions for the remainder of the southern hemisphere winter and spring. Typically, a positive IOD brings below average winter-spring rainfall to southern and central Australia, and above average daytime temperatures for the southern two-thirds of Australia.

Get the latest El Niño update in our fortnightly ENSO Wrap-Up. Find out about likely seasonal rainfall conditions in our current Rainfall outlook. For a range of other detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information.

7–day streamflow forecasting service

The Bureau also delivers 7-day streamflow forecasts for more than 160 sites around Australia.

Combining near real-time rainfall and streamflow observations with rainfall forecasts, we calculate how much runoff is likely, and flow of this water down the stream network. A forecast is generated for each of the next seven days. Access the 7-day streamflow forecasts.

Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence