Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: September–November 2015

  • Low streamflows more likely for September-November
  • Low August streamflows observed at half of forecast locations
  • El Niño strengthens but a warm Indian Ocean persists

Streamflow forecast for September-November

For September to November, low streamflows are more likely at 98 locations across Australia. Near-median flows are more likely at 29 locations and high flows are more likely at five locations. There is generally high to moderate forecast skill across the country and in particular, across southern Australia.

Due to very low model skill or missing observations, forecasts have not been issued at eight locations. We suggest using the historical climatology for these locations.

Use the map below to zoom and pan to view the forecast locations. Zoom in to view pie chart tercile forecasts, and then click on a pie chart to go directly to the latest forecast.

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.

New information video

Outlook video

  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

August catchment conditions

Low August flows were recorded at 71 out of 140 locations across Australia, predominantly in southwest Western Australia, Tasmania, South Australia, and northern Victoria (north of the Great Dividing Range). Near-median flows were recorded at 54 locations, while high flows were recorded at 15 locations, predominantly in eastern New South Wales and southeastern Victoria (south of the Great Dividing Range).

August rainfall was below average for much of Victoria (excluding Gippsland), the southwest coast of Western Australia, and northern Tasmania. Rainfall was above average in southeastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, southeastern Western Australia and central Northern Territory. Rainfall in the Murray–Darling Basin was 23% below average. For more details, read our Monthly Climate Summary. Deep soil moisture is significantly below average in central and western Victoria, southwest Western Australia and areas of central Queensland.

Climate influences

The current El Niño is now the strongest since 1997-1998, with warm sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index. The current El Niño has been following, and is expected to continue to follow, a normal El Nnño cycle with a peak in early summer. While the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been above the positive IOD threshold of 0.4°C for four weeks, sea surface temperatures are warmer than average over much of the Indian Ocean basin and are likely to have moderated the influences of El Niño and the IOD.

El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall across eastern Australia in winter and spring, and also warmer-than-normal daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. Our understanding ENSO video provides more information on how El Niño impacts our climate and weather.

Get the latest El Niño update in our fortnightly ENSO Wrap-Up. Find out about likely seasonal rainfall conditions in our current Rainfall outlook. For a range of other detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information.

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