Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
Date: June to August 2013
Near median flows likely for most forecast sites
Streamflow forecasts for the June to August period suggest that near median flows are more likely for most forecast sites. Near median May streamflows occurred at 35 sites out of 70 forecast sites across eastern Australia. Low May streamflows were recorded at 25 sites in New South Wales and Victoria and high flows were recorded at eight sites. The tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral with respect to ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), while a negative Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to develop during the southern winter-spring period. The climate models indicate a wetter than normal season is more likely for large parts of northern and eastern mainland Australia.
Australia Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula Northern Territory, or click on the rectangles on the Australia map below to select a particular region. Then click on the pie charts to go directly to the most recent forecasts.
Victoria
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for June to August 2013
Southern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for June to August 2013
Northern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for June to August 2013
Northern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for June to August 2013
Southern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for June to August 2013
Cape York Peninsula
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for June to August 2013
Northern Territory
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for June to August 2013
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Moderate to high skill
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Low skill or missing climate data
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Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data
Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.
Moderate forecast skill for most sites
The forecast skill scores for the June-July-August period are high for eight out of 70 sites, moderate for 40 sites, low for 17 sites and very low for five sites. Forecasts that have low skill are displayed as faded pie charts on the maps. Skill scores for these forecasts exceed those obtained from using the historical record to calculate probabilities (historical reference). The forecasts with very low skill are displayed as grey pie charts on the maps.
May catchment conditions
May rainfall was average to below average over the southeastern Queensland, New South Wales and Victorian forecast catchments. Rainfall was average to above average over the rest of the Queensland forecast catchments. More information about May weather and climate conditions can be found in the state climate summaries for Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Northern Territory.
Near median May streamflows were recorded at 35 sites out of 70 forecast sites. Low May streamflows were recorded at 25 forecast sites in New South Wales and Victoria and high streamflows were observed at eight sites, mainly in northern Queensland. Conditions were warmer and catchments were drier than average for most of New South Wales and Victoria in May. The total inflow to Lake Eppalock was zero for the sixth month in a row. However the Cairn Curran and Tullaroop Reservoirs, after two months of recording zero inflows, did receive total inflows in May of 1289 ML and 287 ML respectively.
Streamflow forecasts for June to August
Near median streamflows for the June to August forecast period are more likely at the majority of forecast sites. Low flows are forecast for 20 sites in Victoria and in southern and central parts of New South Wales. High flows are more likely for 11 sites.
All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO have remained neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) since mid 2012. While most models suggest that neutral conditions will continue in 2013, it remains possible that a La Niña event could develop later in the year. Four of the five models surveyed point to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) occurring during the southern winter-spring period. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above-average rainfall over southern Australia and increased humidity over parts of northern Australia. The climate outlook for June to August 2013 indicates that a wetter than normal season is more likely for large parts of northern and eastern mainland Australia.
For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.
