Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: April–June 2015

  • Low streamflows more likely at most locations in April-June
  • Low streamflows recorded in March
  • The El Niño Southern Oscillation tracker has been raised to El Niño ALERT level

Streamflow forecast - April to June

For the April to June 2015 forecast period, low streamflows are more likely at 39 of the 65 locations at which skill is acceptable. Median and high flows are more likely at 17 and 9 locations, respectively. Forecast skill scores for the April - June period are low or moderate for most of these locations. Due to very low skill scores, the forecast has not been issued at 36 locations and we suggest using climatology for these. The monthly Climate and Water Outlook video covers rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the next three months and beyond.

Use the map below to zoom and pan to view the forecast locations. Then click on a pie chart to go directly to the latest forecast.

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.

New information video

Outlook video

  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

March catchment conditions

Low March streamflows were recorded at 64 of 99 forecast locations across Australia. Near median streamflows were recorded at 31 locations and high flows were recorded at four locations. Observed streamflows were not available at Shannon River at Dog Pool (Western Australia) due to wildfire, and at Gibbo River at Gibbo Park (Victoria).

Recorded low streamflows were distributed around the country, largely in areas that also have below-average deep soil moisture. Median and high flows were associated with areas in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland with higher than average deep soil moisture, and with above average rainfall in north-western Western Australia.

Nationally-averaged rainfall during March was 30% below the long-term average. Tasmania and Western Australia were the only regions to record area-averaged totals above the long-term mean.

State-wide rainfall statistics and maps are now available online.

Climate influences

The Bureau's ENSO Tracker status has been raised to El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring this year. Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific continue to be warmer than average, trade winds remain weaker than average, and models suggest further ocean warming will occur. All international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that El Niño thresholds will be reached or exceeded by June. However, we are currently in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition period, and model outlook accuracy is lower than it is at other times of the year. Our understanding ENSO and climate outlook video videos explain how to interpret the climate outlook information to assist decision-making.

For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.

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