Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: November 2014–January 2015



  • Low streamflows more likely
  • Low streamflows recorded in October
  • The El Niño Southern Oscillation remains neutral

Streamflow forecast - November to January


For November to January, low streamflows are forecast at 56 of the 61 locations where forecast skill is acceptable. Near median flows are forecast at five locations, and there are no locations with a forecast for high streamflows. Forecasts are not issued due to very low forecast skill at 13 locations. Forecast skill scores for the November to January period are high for 12 out of 74 locations, moderate for 30 locations, low for 19 locations and very low for 13 locations. The monthly Climate and Water Outlook video covers rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the next three months and beyond.


Australia Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula Northern Territory, or click on the rectangles on the Australia map below to select a particular region. Then click on the pie charts to go directly to the most recent forecasts.

New information video



Outlook video

Cape York Peninsula Northern Queensland Southern Queensland South Australia Northern New South Wales Southern New South Wales Victoria Northern Territory Map of Australian forecast sites.

Victoria
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for November 2014–January 2015

Tercile forecast for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Murray River at Biggara (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Ovens River at Bright (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South (High skill)Tercile forecast for Acheron River at Taggerty (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Goulburn River at Dohertys (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Tambo River at Swifts Creek (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Wonnangatta River at Waterford (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Latrobe River at Willow Grove (High skill)Tercile forecast for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Lake Eildon (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Graceburn Creek inflow at Graceburn Weir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to O'Shannassy Reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Upper Yarra Reservoir (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Thomson Reservoir (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Victorian catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for November 2014–January 2015

Tercile forecast for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd (High skill)Tercile forecast for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac (High skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Cotter River at Gingera (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gudgenby at Tennent (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Muttama Creek at Coolac (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola (High skill)Tercile forecast for Shoalhaven River at Warri (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic (High skill)Tercile forecast for Maragle Creek at Maragle (High skill)Tercile forecast for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith (High skill)Tercile forecast for Tuross River at Tuross Vale (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for the Southern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for November 2014–January 2015

Tercile forecast for Richmond River at Wiangaree (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Halls Creek at Bingara (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Turon River at Sofala (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Namoi River at North Cuerindi (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Barnard River above Barry (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Wollomombi River at Coninside (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Coxs River at Island Hill (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Northern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for November 2014–January 2015

Tercile forecast for Bloomfield River at China Camp (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Wild River at Silver Valley (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Gregory River at Riversleigh (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Burdekin River at Sellheim (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Herbert River at Abergowrie (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Barron River at Picnic Crossing (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for November 2014–January 2015

Tercile forecast for Swan Creek at Swanfels (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Stanley River at Peachester (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Emu Creek at Emu Vale (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for Southern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Cape York Peninsula
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for November 2014–January 2015

Tercile forecast for Coen River at Coen Racecourse (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Coalseam Creek at Laura River (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for Cape York Peninsula. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Territory
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for November 2014–January 2015

Tercile forecast for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Territory. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours
  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.


October catchment conditions

Across eastern Australia, low streamflows were recorded at 53 of 74 locations. Near median streamflows were recorded at 15 locations and high streamflows were recorded at three locations.

October rainfall was below average to very much below average across most of Australia, excluding Tasmania and Western Australia. Tasmania received mostly average rainfall and Western Australia received above average rainfall. For South Australia, Northern Territory and Queensland, it was the driest, fourth driest and ninth driest October on record. Much of New South Wales and Victoria received significantly below average rainfall and the Murray-Darling basin received its eighth lowest October rainfall on record. State-wide rainfall statistics and maps are now available online.

Climate influences

Overall, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, despite the tropical Pacific Ocean warming over the last two months. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains negative but within the neutral range. These near-El Niño conditions, expected to persist for the next few months, are consistent with the general below-average rainfall across much of Australia. Three of eight climate models indicate an El Niño developing by January 2015. The ENSO Tracker is set at an El Niño WATCH status. The climate outlook video explains how to interpret the climate outlook information to assist decision-making.


For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.


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