Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: August–October 2015

  • Low streamflows more likely for August-October
  • Low July streamflows recored at half of forecast locations
  • EL NIÑO strengthens in the Pacific Ocean

Streamflow forecast for August-October

For August to October 2015, low streamflows are more likely at 81 locations across Australia. Near-median flows are more likely at 39 locations and high flows at 10 locations, generally in New South Wales and eastern Victoria. Forecast skill is generally moderate or high.

Due to very low model skill or missing observations, forecasts have not been issued at 10 locations. We suggest using historical climatology for these locations.

Use the map below to zoom and pan to view the forecast locations. Zoom in to view pie chart tercile forecasts, and then click on a pie chart to go directly to the latest forecast.

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.

New information video

Outlook video

  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

July catchment conditions

Low flows were recorded at 70 of 140 locations across Australia. Near-median flows were recorded at 50 locations and high flows at 18 locations, generally in the southeast mainland. July streamflow observations were not available at Barker Rd Crossing in Warren River and Downstream of Big Boggy Creek in Ansons River.

July rainfall was below average for the southwest of Western Australia, across most of Tasmania, and parts of the east coast, South Australia and western Victoria. Rainfall was 12% below average over the Murray-Darling Basin. Rainfall was above average for parts of northern Australia, and in some parts of the west of Western Australia. For more details, read our Monthly Climate Summary. Deep soil moisture remains below average across most of Queensland and northern New South Wales, in central and western Victoria, and in south west Western Australia.

Climate influences

The EL NIÑO is now well-established and continues to strengthen.

El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall across eastern Australia in winter and spring, and also warmer-than-normal daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. Our understanding ENSO video provides more information on how El Niño impacts our climate and weather.

Get the latest El Niño update in our fortnightly ENSO Wrap-Up. Find out about likely seasonal rainfall conditions in our current Rainfall outlook. For a range of other detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information.

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