Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
Date: May–July 2015
- Low May-July flows most likely in inland areas with below-average soil moisture
- High flows most likely in coastal areas affected by recent East Coast Lows
- High April streamflows recorded in southeastern coastal areas
- ENSO Tracker: EL NIÑO
Streamflow forecast for May-July
For the May to July 2015 forecast period, low streamflows are more likely at 34 of the 82 locations at which skill is acceptable. These locations are generally inland, and are associated with below-average soil moisture. High and near median flows are more likely at 30 and 18 locations, respectively. High flows are most likely in southeastern coastal areas that received rainfall during recent East Coast Lows. Forecast skill scores for the May to July period are low or moderate for most locations. Due to very low skill scores, the forecast has not been issued at 19 locations, and we suggest using climatology for these.
Use the map below to zoom and pan to view the forecast locations. Then click on a pie chart to go directly to the latest forecast.
Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.
New information video
Moderate to high skill
Low skill or missing climate data
Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data
April catchment conditions
Low April streamflows were recorded at 42 locations across Australia. High flows were recorded at 31 locations and near median streamflows were recorded at 27 locations. Observed April streamflow was not available at Shannon River at Dog Pool (Western Australia) because the gauge was damaged by wildfire in January.
High streamflows were predominantly observed across coastal regions of southeastern Australia. This pattern is associated with above-median rainfall and above-average soil moisture along coastal regions in southeastern Australia. Low to near-median observed flows were predominant across the rest of Australia, particularly where soil moisture is below average.
Across Australia rainfall was 12% below the long-term average. Parts of southern Australia received above-average rainfall, while western Tasmania received significantly below-average rainfall.
The Bureau has confirmed that El Niño thresholds have been reached in the tropical Pacific for the first time since March 2010. Our ENSO Tracker status is now at EL NIÑO.
El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. During El Niño events, we generally observe more streams with lower-than-average flows, and fewer with higher-than-average flows across eastern Australia. This tends to result in less water flowing into water storages during the traditional filling season, between June and October. Our understanding ENSO video provides more information on how El Niño impact our climate and weather.