Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
Date: April to June 2013
Near median or high flows likely for most forecast sites
Streamflow forecasts for the April to June period indicate that near median or high flows are more likely for most forecast sites. Low March streamflows were recorded at ten of the 50 forecast sites, generally in northern Queensland and southern Victoria. Near median flows occurred at 18 locations, mainly in southern New South Wales and northern Victoria, and high March streamflows occurred at 21 sites. The tropical Pacific remains neutral with respect to ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and climate models indicate this situation is likely to continue through the remainder of autumn.
Australia Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula, or click on the rectangles on the Australia map below to select a particular region. Then click on the pie charts to go directly to the latest forecasts.
Victoria
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for April to June 2013
Southern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for April to June 2013
Northern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for April to June 2013
Northern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for April to June 2013
Southern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for April to June 2013
Cape York Peninsula
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for April to June 2013
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Moderate to high skill
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Low skill or missing climate data
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Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data
Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.
Low to very low forecast skill for most sites
Forecast skill scores for the April-May-June period are moderate for eight sites, low for 18 sites and very low for 24 sites. Forecasts that have low skill are displayed as faded pie charts on the maps. Skill scores for these forecasts exceed those obtained from using the historical record to calculate probabilities (historical reference). The forecasts with very low skill are displayed as grey pie charts on the maps.
March catchment conditions
March rainfall was average to below average over northern Queensland, south eastern New South Wales and southern Victorian forecast catchments. Rainfall was above average over northern Cape York Peninsula and average to above average over the remaining forecast catchments. More information about March weather and climate conditions can be found in the state climate summaries for Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland.
Low March streamflows were recorded at ten forecast sites, mainly in northern Queensland and southern Victoria. Conditions were warmer and catchments drier than average in Victoria and the total inflow to Lake Eppalock was zero for the fourth month in a row. Cairn Curran and Tullaroop Reservoirs also recorded total inflows of zero in March. Near median flows occurred at 18 locations, mainly in southern New South Wales and northern Victoria and high streamflows at 21 sites. Halls Creek at Bingara in northern New South Wales registered its highest March streamflow total on record with 1796 ML, exceeding its previous highest March total of 1454 ML, which occurred in 1984. Wollomombi River at Coninside, also in northern New South Wales, registered its third highest March streamflow total on record with 10 937 ML, exceeded only by its March 1977 total of 30 160 ML and its March 2001 total of 16 450 ML.
Near median or high total streamflows are more likely for the majority of forecast sites for April to June. The only sites for which low flows are forecast are Barron River at Picnic Crossing in northern Queensland, the total inflow to Tullaroop Reservoir, which was zero in March, Tambo River at Swifts Creek and Latrobe River at Willow Grove in Victoria.
The tropical Pacific remains neutral and current atmospheric and oceanic indicators as well as climate model forecasts indicate neutral conditions are likely to continue through the remainder of the southern hemisphere autumn. Following Australia's warmest summer on record with respect to land and ocean temperatures, southern waters remain unusually warm. High ocean temperatures may promote increased local rainfall under certain weather conditions.
For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.
