Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: February–April 2015



  • Low to near median streamflows more likely
  • Low to near median streamflows recorded in January
  • The El Niño Southern Oscillation tracker status remains NEUTRAL

Streamflow forecast - February to April


For the February to April 2015 forecast period, low streamflows and near median streamflows are more likely at 27 and 25 of the 58 locations respectively where skill is acceptable. High flows are forecast at six locations. The forecast skill scores for the February to April period are moderate or high for most locations. Due to very low skill scores, the forecast has not been issued at 16 locations. The monthly Climate and Water Outlook video covers rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the next three months and beyond.


Australia Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula Northern Territory, or click on the rectangles on the Australia map below to select a particular region. Then click on the pie charts to go directly to the most recent forecasts.

New information video



Outlook video

Cape York Peninsula Northern Queensland Southern Queensland South Australia Northern New South Wales Southern New South Wales Victoria Northern Territory Map of Australian forecast sites.

Victoria
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for February–April 2015

Tercile forecast for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam (High skill)Tercile forecast for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Murray River at Biggara (High skill)Tercile forecast for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park (High skill)Tercile forecast for Ovens River at Bright (High skill)Tercile forecast for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Acheron River at Taggerty (High skill)Tercile forecast for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge (High skill)Tercile forecast for Goulburn River at Dohertys (High skill)Tercile forecast for Tambo River at Swifts Creek (High skill)Tercile forecast for Wonnangatta River at Waterford (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Latrobe River at Willow Grove (High skill)Tercile forecast for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Lake Eildon (High skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Graceburn Creek inflow at Graceburn Weir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to O'Shannassy Reservoir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Upper Yarra Reservoir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Thomson Reservoir (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for the Victorian catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for February–April 2015

Tercile forecast for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara (High skill)Tercile forecast for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd (High skill)Tercile forecast for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper (High skill)Tercile forecast for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac (High skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook (High skill)Tercile forecast for Cotter River at Gingera (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gudgenby at Tennent (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Muttama Creek at Coolac (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola (High skill)Tercile forecast for Shoalhaven River at Warri (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic (High skill)Tercile forecast for Maragle Creek at Maragle (High skill)Tercile forecast for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Tuross River at Tuross Vale (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Southern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for February–April 2015

Tercile forecast for Richmond River at Wiangaree (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Halls Creek at Bingara (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Turon River at Sofala (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Namoi River at North Cuerindi (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Barnard River above Barry (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Wollomombi River at Coninside (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Coxs River at Island Hill (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Northern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for February–April 2015

Tercile forecast for Bloomfield River at China Camp (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Wild River at Silver Valley (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gregory River at Riversleigh (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Herbert River at Abergowrie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls (High skill)Tercile forecast for Barron River at Picnic Crossing (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for February–April 2015

Tercile forecast for Swan Creek at Swanfels (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Stanley River at Peachester (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Emu Creek at Emu Vale (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for Southern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Cape York Peninsula
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for February–April 2015

Tercile forecast for Coen River at Coen Racecourse (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Coalseam Creek at Laura River (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for Cape York Peninsula. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Territory
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for February–April 2015

Tercile forecast for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Territory. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours
  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.


January catchment conditions

Low January streamflows were recorded at 37 of 74 locations in eastern Australia. Near median streamflows were recorded at 25 locations and high streamflows were recorded at 12 locations.

January rainfall was below average for the Cape York Peninsula and this was reflected in low streamflows in this region. Rainfall was above average in central parts of Queensland and most of New South Wales and Victoria. However, relatively dry soils in many of these areas meant that this rainfall resulted in low to median streamflows. Rainfall was 34% above average nationally and the Murray-Darling basin received 20% above average rainfall for January. State-wide rainfall statistics and maps are now available online.

Climate influences

The tropical Pacific Ocean has eased away from the borderline El Niño observed during late 2014. Overall, the tropical Pacific region remains neutral. Climate influences include some residual warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and a warm central Indian Ocean. International models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to remain within the neutral range for at least the next three months. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker status remains at El Niño NEUTRAL. The climate outlook video explains how to interpret the climate outlook information to assist decision-making.


For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.


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