Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: October to December 2014



  • Low forecast streamflows more likely
  • Low streamflows recorded at most locations in September
  • The likelihood of an El Niño developing in the next few months remains at 50%

Streamflow forecast - October to December


For October to December, low streamflows are forecast at 38 locations, and near median flows at 24 of the 64 locations where skill is not very low. High flows are more likely at two locations. Forecasts are not issued due to very low skill at 10 locations. Forecast skill scores for the October to December period are high for 17 out of 74 locations, moderate for 36 locations, low for 11 locations and very low for 10 locations. The monthly Climate and Water Outlook video covers rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the next three months and beyond.


Australia Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula Northern Territory, or click on the rectangles on the Australia map below to select a particular region. Then click on the pie charts to go directly to the most recent forecasts.

New information video



Outlook video

Cape York Peninsula Northern Queensland Southern Queensland South Australia Northern New South Wales Southern New South Wales Victoria Northern Territory Map of Australian forecast sites.

Victoria
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for October to December 2014

Tercile forecast for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Murray River at Biggara (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Ovens River at Bright (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South (High skill)Tercile forecast for Acheron River at Taggerty (High skill)Tercile forecast for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Goulburn River at Dohertys (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Tambo River at Swifts Creek (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Wonnangatta River at Waterford (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Latrobe River at Willow Grove (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Lake Eildon (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock (High skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Graceburn Creek inflow at Graceburn Weir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to O'Shannassy Reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Upper Yarra Reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Thomson Reservoir (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for the Victorian catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for October to December 2014

Tercile forecast for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara (High skill)Tercile forecast for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd (High skill)Tercile forecast for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper (High skill)Tercile forecast for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac (High skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook (High skill)Tercile forecast for Cotter River at Gingera (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gudgenby at Tennent (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Muttama Creek at Coolac (High skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola (High skill)Tercile forecast for Shoalhaven River at Warri (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic (High skill)Tercile forecast for Maragle Creek at Maragle (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith (High skill)Tercile forecast for Tuross River at Tuross Vale (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for the Southern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for October to December 2014

Tercile forecast for Richmond River at Wiangaree (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Halls Creek at Bingara (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Turon River at Sofala (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Namoi River at North Cuerindi (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Barnard River above Barry (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Wollomombi River at Coninside (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Coxs River at Island Hill (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Northern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for October to December 2014

Tercile forecast for Bloomfield River at China Camp (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Wild River at Silver Valley (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Gregory River at Riversleigh (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Burdekin River at Sellheim (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Herbert River at Abergowrie (High skill)Tercile forecast for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Barron River at Picnic Crossing (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for October to December 2014

Tercile forecast for Swan Creek at Swanfels (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Stanley River at Peachester (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Emu Creek at Emu Vale (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for Southern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Cape York Peninsula
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for October to December 2014

Tercile forecast for Coen River at Coen Racecourse (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Coalseam Creek at Laura River (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for Cape York Peninsula. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Territory
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for October to December 2014

Tercile forecast for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Territory. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours
  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.


September catchment conditions

Across eastern Australia, low September streamflows were recorded at 51 of 74 locations, predominantly in south-eastern Australia, and west of the Great Dividing Range. Near median September streamflows were recorded at 14 locations. High streamflows were recorded at nine locations, mainly in Queensland.

Across the forecast catchments, September rainfall was generally average to above average in Queensland. Average to below average rainfall was recorded in southern inland New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. State-wide rainfall statistics and maps are now available online.

Climate influences

The chance of El Niño developing in the coming months is at least 50%, which is around double the normal likelihood. The ENSO Tracker is set at an El Niño WATCH status. Given current observations and model outlooks, if an event was to occur it is unlikely to be a strong event. The climate outlook video explains how to interpret the climate outlook information to assist decision-making.


For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.


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