Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: July–September 2019

  • Mostly low streamflows likely across Australia for July–September 2019.
  • Low flows observed at 64% of locations across Australia in June. Near-median and high flows mostly in northeastern and southeastern regions.
  • The ENSO outlook is reset to INACTIVE.

Streamflow forecast for July–September 2019

For July–September 2019, low streamflows are more likely at 122 locations, spread across Australia. Near-median and high flows are likely at 54 and 18 locations respectively, mainly in northeastern and southeastern regions of the country. For this time of year, 72% of locations have moderate to high skill, while 28% of locations have low to very low skill, mostly in the southeastern regions.

Forecasts have not been issued for 21 locations due to very low model skill or missing observed data. We suggest using the observed climatology for these locations.

Use the map below to zoom and pan to view the forecast locations. Zoom in to view pie chart tercile forecasts, and then click on a pie chart to go directly to the latest forecast.

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.

Information video

Outlook video

  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

June 2019 catchment conditions

Low streamflows were recorded at 135 locations, across Australia. Near-median and high flows were recorded at 43 and 33 locations respectively–mostly in northeastern and southwestern regions.

June rainfall was below to very much below average across most of New South Wales, extending into much of southern Queensland, and adjacent border regions of South Australia and Victoria. Rainfall for the month was also below average for southern Tasmania, the western half of South Australia, much of eastern Western Australia, and large parts of the Northern Territory. Rainfall was above average for a large area in the west of Western Australia, inland northern Queensland, parts of southwest and central west Victoria, and the western half of the Central District in Victoria.

Above-average actual evapotranspiration (AET) occurred in central and northern Queensland and western New South Wales, northwestern Western Australia and southern coast of South Australia. Below-average AET occurred across most of the country, where modelled lower-layer soil moisture (10–100cm) is below to very much below average.

For more details on June rainfall across Australia, read our monthly Climate Summary and Drought Statement. For more information on June soil moisture and evapotranspiration across Australia, access the Australian Landscape Water Balance site.

Climate influences

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is reset to INACTIVE. While the possibility of El Niño can't be completely ruled out for 2019, the tropical Pacific Ocean is more likely than not to remain in an ENSO-neutral phase over the coming months.

Model outlooks indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to drive Australia's weather for much of the rest of 2019, meaning the likelihood of a drier than average winter-spring remains.

Get the latest El Niño update in our fortnightly ENSO Wrap-Up. Find out about likely seasonal rainfall conditions in our current Rainfall outlook. For a range of other detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information.

7–day streamflow forecasting service

The Bureau also delivers 7-day streamflow forecasts for more than 160 sites around Australia.

Combining near real-time rainfall and streamflow observations with rainfall forecasts, we calculate how much runoff is likely, and flow of this water down the stream network. A forecast is generated for each of the next seven days. Access the 7-day streamflow forecasts.

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