Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


Return to catchment list
Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.5243.020
202.7231.814
302.2351.287
401.8860.928
501.5980.692
601.3610.500
701.1410.364
800.9210.247
900.6820.136

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.5339.891
25.6716.959
35.0306.006
44.7465.313
54.4334.828
64.1404.243
73.9423.866
83.8233.536
93.6453.233
103.5243.020
113.4272.853
123.3292.678
133.2332.550
143.1502.426
153.0542.296
162.9942.198
172.9032.085
182.8501.975
192.7831.883
202.7231.814
212.6691.748
222.6061.674
232.5611.627
242.5091.557
252.4671.516
262.4091.480
272.3671.426
282.3151.383
292.2761.338
302.2351.287
312.1971.242
322.1621.197
332.1151.162
342.0791.130
352.0461.085
362.0031.051
371.9691.016
381.9410.986
391.9100.960
401.8860.928
411.8550.897
421.8250.875
431.7950.856
441.7750.831
451.7430.809
461.7170.784
471.6900.763
481.6510.735
491.6280.714
501.5980.692
511.5730.672
521.5470.653
531.5260.630
541.4960.610
551.4770.588
561.4550.564
571.4290.550
581.4050.535
591.3850.520
601.3610.500
611.3370.481
621.3170.467
631.2880.454
641.2680.438
651.2460.426
661.2230.414
671.2040.403
681.1890.389
691.1620.374
701.1410.364
711.1170.350
721.0970.339
731.0760.326
741.0530.315
751.0290.303
761.0050.292
770.9840.280
780.9590.270
790.9390.260
800.9210.247
810.9000.235
820.8780.224
830.8570.211
840.8350.201
850.8150.192
860.7860.180
870.7620.168
880.7330.159
890.7040.148
900.6820.136
910.6560.125
920.6210.112
930.5880.098
940.5610.082
950.5250.071
960.4910.058
970.4360.040
980.3850.025
990.3100.008


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence