Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.4313.984
201.5041.741
301.0490.961
400.7330.543
500.5350.326
600.3860.186
700.2700.108
800.1760.056
900.0930.020

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.62113.912
25.29910.515
34.5579.191
44.0118.133
53.6137.339
63.2746.315
73.0235.619
82.7914.990
92.6124.401
102.4313.984
112.2773.656
122.1703.315
132.0753.068
141.9672.832
151.8742.589
161.7972.409
171.7372.206
181.6612.014
191.5681.857
201.5041.741
211.4501.634
221.3781.517
231.3231.445
241.2821.339
251.2341.278
261.1871.226
271.1521.149
281.1171.090
291.0831.028
301.0490.961
311.0040.904
320.9670.846
330.9380.804
340.9060.766
350.8730.713
360.8450.674
370.8210.636
380.7850.603
390.7550.576
400.7330.543
410.7080.512
420.6840.490
430.6650.472
440.6490.448
450.6330.428
460.6110.405
470.5930.386
480.5740.362
490.5510.344
500.5350.326
510.5190.310
520.5020.295
530.4840.278
540.4710.263
550.4570.246
560.4410.229
570.4290.219
580.4140.210
590.4000.199
600.3860.186
610.3740.174
620.3630.165
630.3520.158
640.3410.149
650.3270.142
660.3140.135
670.3020.129
680.2910.121
690.2790.113
700.2700.108
710.2600.101
720.2520.096
730.2400.090
740.2290.085
750.2210.079
760.2110.074
770.2030.069
780.1940.065
790.1870.061
800.1760.056
810.1650.051
820.1560.047
830.1490.043
840.1410.039
850.1330.036
860.1260.032
870.1180.029
880.1100.026
890.1020.023
900.0930.020
910.0840.017
920.0770.014
930.0670.010
940.0600.007
950.0500.005
960.0400.003
970.0330.000
980.0210.000
990.0110.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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