Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10114.811
2091.410
3076.608
4063.441
5052.754
6042.372
7033.822
8025.631
9017.034

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1175.490
2156.087
3148.480
4142.224
5137.587
6131.127
7126.576
8122.309
9118.035
10114.811
11112.124
12109.145
13106.874
14104.587
15102.061
16100.045
1797.679
1895.255
1993.109
2091.410
2189.762
2287.919
2386.625
2484.731
2583.539
2682.510
2780.937
2879.684
2978.223
3076.608
3175.126
3273.615
3372.418
3471.235
3569.606
3668.301
3766.994
3865.772
3964.766
4063.441
4162.158
4261.205
4360.401
4459.295
4558.299
4657.183
4756.169
4854.844
4953.840
5052.754
5151.768
5250.780
5349.624
5448.519
5547.398
5646.039
5745.236
5844.426
5943.537
6042.372
6141.212
6240.367
6339.578
6438.612
6537.862
6637.097
6736.383
6835.455
6934.504
7033.822
7132.891
7232.148
7331.279
7430.505
7529.650
7628.889
7728.063
7827.302
7926.577
8025.631
8124.746
8223.908
8322.963
8422.175
8521.495
8620.585
8719.653
8818.907
8918.017
9017.034
9116.124
9215.059
9313.934
9412.579
9511.618
9610.522
978.942
987.599
996.052


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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