Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.7446.664
205.0495.389
304.5744.561
404.2033.800
503.8533.157
603.5062.507
703.1851.954
802.7901.416
902.2510.864

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17.6629.896
26.9908.867
36.7118.463
46.4728.130
56.3057.883
66.1417.539
76.0237.295
85.9367.067
95.8266.837
105.7446.664
115.6656.519
125.5756.358
135.5076.235
145.4366.111
155.3605.973
165.2935.863
175.2225.734
185.1675.601
195.1025.483
205.0495.389
214.9905.298
224.9455.196
234.9015.124
244.8445.018
254.7984.952
264.7554.894
274.7034.806
284.6594.735
294.6154.653
304.5744.561
314.5374.477
324.5044.390
334.4684.322
344.4264.254
354.3854.160
364.3474.084
374.3184.008
384.2833.936
394.2443.878
404.2033.800
414.1663.724
424.1243.667
434.0873.619
444.0573.553
454.0243.494
463.9843.426
473.9583.365
483.9243.285
493.8913.224
503.8533.157
513.8203.096
523.7793.036
533.7432.964
543.7062.895
553.6802.825
563.6462.740
573.6082.689
583.5742.638
593.5372.582
603.5062.507
613.4702.433
623.4412.379
633.4082.328
643.3772.266
653.3442.217
663.3132.167
673.2782.121
683.2422.061
693.2131.999
703.1851.954
713.1511.893
723.1101.844
733.0771.787
743.0441.736
753.0071.680
762.9621.630
772.9231.576
782.8831.526
792.8351.478
802.7901.416
812.7421.358
822.6941.304
832.6511.242
842.5991.191
852.5431.147
862.5051.089
872.4431.029
882.3760.982
892.3070.926
902.2510.864
912.1740.808
922.1160.743
932.0480.675
941.9670.595
951.8700.539
961.7620.477
971.6230.389
981.4560.318
991.2420.240


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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