Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


Return to catchment list
Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.1584.487
203.4293.223
302.9592.528
402.6091.978
502.2791.575
602.0311.214
701.7810.935
801.5000.676
901.1500.407

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.5178.397
25.9517.083
35.5606.580
45.1236.173
54.8945.875
64.6975.469
74.5235.188
84.3774.929
94.2804.675
104.1584.487
114.0594.332
123.9814.164
133.8894.037
143.8123.911
153.7423.775
163.6793.667
173.6103.543
183.5383.418
193.4813.309
203.4293.223
213.3733.142
223.3213.052
233.2762.989
243.2382.899
253.1842.843
263.1442.795
273.0952.723
283.0622.666
293.0052.600
302.9592.528
312.9162.463
322.8882.397
332.8592.346
342.8332.296
352.7932.228
362.7532.174
372.7192.120
382.6842.071
392.6532.031
402.6091.978
412.5771.928
422.5421.891
432.5121.860
442.4781.817
452.4491.780
462.4181.738
472.3821.700
482.3421.651
492.3111.614
502.2791.575
512.2541.539
522.2241.504
532.1961.463
542.1671.425
552.1441.386
562.1201.339
572.1001.311
582.0771.284
592.0541.254
602.0311.214
612.0041.176
621.9761.148
631.9471.122
641.9281.090
651.9021.065
661.8681.040
671.8451.017
681.8190.987
691.8000.957
701.7810.935
711.7580.905
721.7300.881
731.7010.854
741.6720.829
751.6470.802
761.6190.778
771.5910.752
781.5570.728
791.5310.706
801.5000.676
811.4630.648
821.4280.622
831.3990.593
841.3660.568
851.3260.547
861.2920.518
871.2490.489
881.2210.466
891.1940.438
901.1500.407
911.1150.378
921.0660.344
931.0210.308
940.9710.264
950.9200.233
960.8570.197
970.7910.144
980.6880.098
990.5900.044


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence