Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse



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Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.96814.572
209.43610.611
307.9788.570
406.8956.977
505.8945.799
605.1084.717
704.3663.846
803.5303.000
902.5482.054

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
120.89231.605
217.90824.778
316.30722.505
415.31920.784
514.48119.588
613.74918.028
713.20016.997
812.72816.079
912.31015.204
1011.96814.572
1111.63514.063
1211.35013.516
1311.07613.112
1410.81512.715
1510.58212.288
1610.37411.955
1710.13111.575
189.86311.194
199.64110.866
209.43610.611
219.27510.368
229.10110.102
238.9229.918
248.7839.652
258.5999.488
268.4629.348
278.3269.136
288.2068.970
298.0738.778
307.9788.570
317.8638.381
327.7388.192
337.6188.043
347.5067.898
357.3757.701
367.2727.544
377.1707.390
387.0747.247
396.9807.130
406.8956.977
416.7926.831
426.6856.724
436.5976.633
446.4946.510
456.3626.400
466.2656.277
476.1776.166
486.0866.023
495.9855.915
505.8945.799
515.8145.694
525.7265.589
535.6555.468
545.5775.352
555.4905.235
565.4245.094
575.3385.011
585.2664.927
595.1914.836
605.1084.717
615.0264.598
624.9414.512
634.8764.432
644.8064.333
654.7294.257
664.6524.179
674.5804.106
684.5064.012
694.4273.915
704.3663.846
714.2923.751
724.2273.675
734.1363.586
744.0513.506
753.9733.418
763.8783.340
773.7923.254
783.7053.175
793.6273.099
803.5303.000
813.4212.906
823.3282.817
833.2422.715
843.1692.630
853.0742.556
862.9972.456
872.8762.353
882.7452.269
892.6292.168
902.5482.054
912.4351.948
922.3201.821
932.1981.684
942.0501.514
951.9051.390
961.7671.244
971.5371.024
981.2930.826
990.9570.582


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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