Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse



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Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.6686.664
205.9445.389
305.4534.561
405.0443.800
504.6763.157
604.3052.507
703.9421.954
803.5101.416
902.8820.864

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.7479.896
28.0488.867
37.6468.463
47.4088.130
57.2477.883
67.0897.539
76.9787.295
86.8727.067
96.7666.837
106.6686.664
116.5646.519
126.4836.358
136.4066.235
146.3356.111
156.2785.973
166.1915.863
176.1325.734
186.0665.601
195.9955.483
205.9445.389
215.8815.298
225.8405.196
235.7865.124
245.7255.018
255.6714.952
265.6184.894
275.5774.806
285.5374.735
295.4884.653
305.4534.561
315.4084.477
325.3704.390
335.3294.322
345.2724.254
355.2354.160
365.1974.084
375.1524.008
385.1113.936
395.0813.878
405.0443.800
414.9983.724
424.9503.667
434.9193.619
444.8843.553
454.8493.494
464.8163.426
474.7843.365
484.7493.285
494.7113.224
504.6763.157
514.6403.096
524.5933.036
534.5642.964
544.5212.895
554.4822.825
564.4532.740
574.4182.689
584.3762.638
594.3372.582
604.3052.507
614.2692.433
624.2302.379
634.1932.328
644.1562.266
654.1212.217
664.0812.167
674.0422.121
684.0102.061
693.9771.999
703.9421.954
713.9041.893
723.8671.844
733.8301.787
743.7901.736
753.7481.680
763.7081.630
773.6581.576
783.6181.526
793.5571.478
803.5101.416
813.4521.358
823.4081.304
833.3511.242
843.2991.191
853.2421.147
863.1851.089
873.1191.029
883.0490.982
892.9720.926
902.8820.864
912.8220.808
922.7390.743
932.6480.675
942.5620.595
952.4570.539
962.3230.477
972.1520.389
981.9550.318
991.6910.240


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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