Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse



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Exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse ( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.6494.487
207.3603.223
306.5552.528
405.9271.978
505.3701.575
604.8421.214
704.3260.935
803.7650.676
903.0480.407

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.0488.397
211.7627.083
310.9116.580
410.3456.173
59.8805.875
69.5225.469
79.2915.188
88.9924.929
98.8014.675
108.6494.487
118.5024.332
128.3564.164
138.1954.037
148.0073.911
157.8743.775
167.7563.667
177.6463.543
187.5483.418
197.4403.309
207.3603.223
217.2583.142
227.1793.052
237.1002.989
247.0032.899
256.9232.843
266.8382.795
276.7802.723
286.7022.666
296.6222.600
306.5552.528
316.4872.463
326.4132.397
336.3582.346
346.2852.296
356.2312.228
366.1672.174
376.1122.120
386.0542.071
395.9842.031
405.9271.978
415.8591.928
425.7821.891
435.7271.860
445.6731.817
455.6271.780
465.5741.738
475.5151.700
485.4711.651
495.4221.614
505.3701.575
515.3191.539
525.2631.504
535.2061.463
545.1601.425
555.1121.386
565.0631.339
575.0021.311
584.9391.284
594.8861.254
604.8421.214
614.7831.176
624.7351.148
634.6771.122
644.6231.090
654.5791.065
664.5261.040
674.4771.017
684.4320.987
694.3770.957
704.3260.935
714.2640.905
724.2130.881
734.1580.854
744.1040.829
754.0560.802
764.0000.778
773.9380.752
783.8770.728
793.8280.706
803.7650.676
813.6990.648
823.6320.622
833.5540.593
843.4960.568
853.4270.547
863.3450.518
873.2780.489
883.1970.466
893.1330.438
903.0480.407
912.9430.378
922.8480.344
932.7440.308
942.6400.264
952.4880.233
962.3390.197
972.2120.144
982.0390.098
991.7460.044


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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