Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Probability distribution for Coen River at Coen Racecourse( Apr 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile11.5828.389
Median21.94217.057
Mean28.34025.446
75% Quartile38.91233.711
Interquartile Range27.32925.322

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1105.005120.557
291.16799.487
383.47991.418
478.62384.898
574.51180.149
669.97673.671
767.63269.218
863.29365.139
960.87961.155
1058.27058.223
1156.73855.830
1254.97053.235
1353.48551.298
1452.05549.386
1550.62547.319
1649.24745.705
1747.50643.850
1846.13841.997
1944.92640.395
2043.90339.154
2142.77137.972
2241.65736.677
2340.85835.784
2439.86434.503
2538.92733.711
2638.16233.037
2737.26832.024
2836.32031.231
2935.27030.322
3034.54429.338
3133.60528.453
3232.87327.568
3332.29126.880
3431.49426.211
3530.70425.307
3630.03924.596
3729.42023.898
3828.80723.257
3927.97122.737
4027.35022.063
4126.81721.421
4226.17820.953
4325.54320.562
4424.94320.032
4524.46719.561
4623.96119.042
4723.50818.577
4822.97917.979
4922.59617.533
5021.94217.057
5121.44416.631
5220.96516.211
5320.51015.726
5419.93615.269
5519.51214.812
5619.07214.268
5718.68413.951
5818.24613.635
5917.81113.291
6017.34512.847
6116.92212.411
6216.60112.098
6316.21911.808
6415.81911.457
6515.38411.188
6614.93710.915
6714.50010.664
6814.19710.340
6913.83810.011
7013.4429.778
7113.1419.462
7212.8719.213
7312.4528.923
7412.0268.668
7511.5828.389
7611.1968.142
7710.7967.877
7810.4117.635
7910.0007.405
809.6597.109
819.1816.834
828.8886.576
838.4666.288
848.0686.050
857.6695.845
867.3475.574
876.9745.298
886.6715.079
896.2424.819
905.7894.535
915.3914.274
924.9933.971
934.5753.654
944.0903.276
953.7103.011
963.0532.710
972.5562.282
981.8571.922
991.0561.513


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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