Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Probability distribution for Coen River at Coen Racecourse(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.071
Median9.184
Mean22.150
75% Quartile26.554
Interquartile Range23.483

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1158.762
2126.206
3113.599
4103.355
595.865
685.631
778.598
872.177
965.945
1061.395
1157.717
1253.767
1350.855
1448.013
1544.983
1642.652
1740.014
1837.425
1935.231
2033.559
2131.992
2230.303
2329.157
2427.538
2526.555
2625.727
2724.501
2823.557
2922.492
3021.359
3120.358
3219.376
3318.625
3417.905
3516.950
3616.213
3715.501
3814.857
3914.343
4013.687
4113.073
4212.632
4312.268
4411.780
4511.354
4610.890
4710.481
489.963
499.583
509.184
518.832
528.489
538.100
547.740
557.386
566.971
576.734
586.500
596.249
605.930
615.623
625.405
635.207
644.971
654.792
664.613
674.450
684.243
694.037
703.892
713.700
723.550
733.379
743.231
753.071
762.932
772.785
782.653
792.530
802.374
812.233
822.103
831.960
841.845
851.748
861.621
871.496
881.399
891.287
901.167
911.061
920.941
930.821
940.685
950.593
960.495
970.364
980.263
990.159


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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