Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


Return to catchment list
Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Coen River at Coen Racecourse(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile4.6633.418
Median6.8485.799
Mean7.8117.414
75% Quartile9.8729.488
Interquartile Range5.2106.070

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
123.32931.605
220.33224.778
318.29322.505
417.25020.784
516.37619.588
615.63118.028
714.95216.997
814.52016.079
914.04315.204
1013.68914.572
1113.25314.063
1212.90913.516
1312.65013.112
1412.36512.715
1512.10512.288
1611.84511.955
1711.54011.575
1811.25911.194
1911.02010.866
2010.83810.611
2110.64910.368
2210.44510.102
2310.2569.918
2410.0419.652
259.8739.488
269.7039.348
279.5859.136
289.4838.970
299.3118.778
309.1908.570
319.0448.381
328.8868.192
338.7558.043
348.6157.898
358.4937.701
368.3907.544
378.2737.390
388.1637.247
398.0577.130
407.9456.977
417.8396.831
427.7256.724
437.5776.633
447.4786.510
457.3706.400
467.2766.277
477.1706.166
487.0476.023
496.9445.915
506.8485.799
516.7405.694
526.6565.589
536.5635.468
546.4545.352
556.3865.235
566.3045.094
576.2225.011
586.1454.927
596.0634.836
605.9774.717
615.8674.598
625.7814.512
635.6964.432
645.6184.333
655.5264.257
665.4364.179
675.3554.106
685.2674.012
695.1933.915
705.1153.846
715.0483.751
724.9643.675
734.8593.586
744.7493.506
754.6623.418
764.5643.340
774.4513.254
784.3653.175
794.2723.099
804.1793.000
814.0562.906
823.9212.817
833.8422.715
843.7312.630
853.6332.556
863.5412.456
873.4212.353
883.2732.269
893.1522.168
903.0382.054
912.9011.948
922.7631.821
932.6271.684
942.4981.514
952.3401.390
962.1641.244
971.8631.024
981.6040.826
991.2670.582


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence