Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Probability distribution for Coen River at Coen Racecourse(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.1650.079
Median0.4090.326
Mean0.7871.373
75% Quartile0.9261.277
Interquartile Range0.7611.198

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.64313.912
24.43010.515
33.6809.191
43.2148.133
52.8497.339
62.5716.315
72.3255.619
82.1454.990
92.0054.401
101.8503.984
111.7523.656
121.6533.315
131.5563.068
141.4812.832
151.4282.589
161.3702.409
171.3132.206
181.2522.014
191.1971.857
201.1511.741
211.0941.634
221.0571.517
231.0121.445
240.9671.339
250.9261.278
260.8921.226
270.8661.149
280.8441.090
290.8191.028
300.7820.961
310.7550.904
320.7280.846
330.6960.804
340.6740.766
350.6470.713
360.6230.674
370.6050.636
380.5840.603
390.5650.576
400.5470.543
410.5310.512
420.5140.490
430.4990.472
440.4840.448
450.4700.428
460.4550.405
470.4420.386
480.4300.362
490.4190.344
500.4090.326
510.3990.310
520.3850.295
530.3730.278
540.3610.263
550.3480.246
560.3350.229
570.3250.219
580.3160.210
590.3050.199
600.2940.186
610.2860.174
620.2760.165
630.2670.158
640.2580.149
650.2480.142
660.2390.135
670.2290.129
680.2200.121
690.2120.113
700.2040.108
710.1960.101
720.1880.096
730.1800.090
740.1740.085
750.1650.079
760.1580.074
770.1520.069
780.1450.065
790.1390.061
800.1320.056
810.1260.051
820.1210.047
830.1140.043
840.1070.039
850.1000.036
860.0930.032
870.0880.029
880.0810.026
890.0750.023
900.0690.020
910.0620.017
920.0570.014
930.0510.010
940.0450.007
950.0380.005
960.0300.003
970.0240.000
980.0160.000
990.0080.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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