Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Probability distribution for Coen River at Coen Racecourse ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile49.743
Median82.372
Mean85.994
75% Quartile117.124
Interquartile Range67.380

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1209.058
2190.000
3182.512
4176.343
5171.763
6165.371
7160.854
8156.610
9152.347
10149.122
11146.428
12143.431
13141.141
14138.829
15136.266
16134.215
17131.799
18129.313
19127.104
20125.349
21123.639
22121.720
23120.368
24118.380
25117.124
26116.036
27114.368
28113.032
29111.467
30109.730
31108.125
32106.480
33105.169
34103.868
35102.064
36100.608
3799.141
3897.761
3996.617
4095.102
4193.621
4292.515
4391.576
4490.276
4589.098
4687.767
4786.548
4884.941
4983.713
5082.372
5181.143
5279.902
5378.435
5477.018
5575.563
5673.778
5772.712
5871.626
5970.424
6068.829
6167.219
6266.031
6364.912
6463.525
6562.436
6661.314
6760.257
6858.867
6957.424
7056.377
7154.932
7253.763
7352.381
7451.135
7549.741
7648.486
7747.107
7845.823
7944.585
8042.950
8141.401
8239.917
8338.221
8436.794
8535.551
8633.871
8732.134
8830.734
8929.052
9027.186
9125.451
9223.415
9321.269
9418.699
9516.895
9614.867
9712.020
989.695
997.161


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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