Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse



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Probability distribution for Coen River at Coen Racecourse ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile72.42650.552
Median99.70181.729
Mean104.50184.918
75% Quartile131.219114.728
Interquartile Range58.79364.176

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1240.356201.955
2216.803183.873
3200.135176.768
4192.543170.916
5187.046166.570
6179.924160.505
7175.956156.220
8171.051152.194
9166.651148.149
10163.673145.089
11160.540142.533
12157.416139.690
13154.405137.517
14151.788135.323
15149.610132.892
16147.939130.945
17145.132128.653
18143.134126.295
19141.255124.199
20139.619122.533
21138.039120.911
22135.935119.090
23134.321117.806
24132.937115.920
25131.238114.729
26129.506113.696
27128.068112.113
28126.757110.845
29125.390109.360
30124.225107.711
31122.897106.188
32121.236104.626
33120.146103.382
34118.923102.147
35117.502100.435
36116.41899.052
37115.03997.660
38113.63896.349
39112.38695.264
40111.27093.824
41109.91292.418
42108.55291.367
43107.42590.476
44106.14589.241
45105.11088.121
46104.11186.857
47102.82285.699
48101.84984.172
49100.93083.004
5099.70181.729
5198.57480.561
5297.25479.380
5396.23477.985
5495.13176.636
5594.16075.252
5693.10873.552
5792.02072.537
5891.07671.502
5990.10070.356
6089.08368.836
6187.95667.300
6286.81966.166
6385.80265.098
6484.65763.773
6583.53962.732
6682.42261.659
6781.64260.648
6880.47659.317
6979.22857.935
7078.18456.930
7177.29155.544
7275.93554.421
7374.70453.092
7473.72751.893
7572.41650.550
7671.12749.339
7769.85248.007
7868.57346.765
7967.02745.566
8065.64943.979
8164.29342.473
8262.67941.027
8361.28139.372
8459.93537.974
8558.39936.754
8656.90335.102
8755.38633.387
8853.61932.001
8951.53330.330
9049.41828.469
9147.24426.731
9245.04224.682
9342.52422.509
9440.03419.890
9537.72618.039
9634.89715.946
9730.54912.983
9826.47310.541
9919.7157.853


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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