Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1992) (GL)
Oct0.3250.0580.3340.0000.6520.000
Oct-Nov1.004NA0.3730.0001.0780.000
Oct-Dec5.941NA0.3730.0002.91878.671

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1018.319
206.042
302.739
401.290
500.664
600.322
700.161
800.071
900.021

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
179.322
258.672
350.627
444.076
539.291
632.801
728.417
824.513
920.865
1018.319
1116.351
1214.339
1312.931
1411.623
1510.302
169.339
178.308
187.355
196.594
206.042
215.547
225.037
234.705
244.255
253.993
263.778
273.471
283.243
292.994
302.739
312.523
322.319
332.168
342.028
351.848
361.715
371.590
381.480
391.395
401.290
411.195
421.128
431.074
441.004
450.944
460.881
470.826
480.760
490.712
500.664
510.622
520.583
530.539
540.500
550.463
560.421
570.397
580.375
590.351
600.322
610.295
620.276
630.260
640.241
650.227
660.213
670.201
680.185
690.171
700.161
710.148
720.138
730.127
740.118
750.109
760.100
770.092
780.085
790.079
800.071
810.064
820.058
830.051
840.046
850.042
860.037
870.032
880.029
890.025
900.021
910.017
920.014
930.011
940.007
950.005
960.003
970.001
980.000
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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