Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1992) (GL)
Dec4.937NA0.0000.0391.84078.671
Dec-Jan21.294NA11.2530.67113.325152.746
Dec-Feb51.537NA14.2981.30040.549227.075

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10109.066
2079.082
3063.082
4050.387
5040.890
6032.115
7025.017
8018.104
9010.371

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1219.043
2178.701
3164.181
4152.809
5144.715
6133.917
7126.639
8120.061
9113.707
10109.066
11105.298
12101.223
1398.187
1495.193
1591.955
1689.424
1786.510
1883.588
1981.054
2079.082
2177.197
2275.121
2373.683
2471.608
2570.320
2669.218
2767.553
2866.242
2964.731
3063.082
3161.587
3260.082
3358.902
3457.747
3556.174
3654.926
3753.690
3852.545
3951.610
4050.387
4149.213
4248.348
4347.623
4446.631
4545.743
4644.754
4743.862
4842.703
4941.830
5040.890
5140.042
5239.195
5338.210
5437.272
5536.324
5635.180
5734.506
5833.828
5933.086
6032.115
6131.150
6230.448
6329.793
6428.992
6528.370
6627.736
6727.144
6826.374
6925.584
7025.017
7124.242
7223.622
7322.895
7422.246
7521.527
7620.884
7720.184
7819.537
7918.917
8018.104
8117.339
8216.610
8315.780
8415.083
8514.477
8613.659
8712.811
8812.125
8911.297
9010.371
919.499
928.459
937.337
945.948
954.932
963.740
971.945
980.330
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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