Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1992) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan16.4153.42811.2532.41211.48537.008
Jan-Feb46.91818.39814.2984.26338.709109.923
Jan-Mar84.61248.08060.5737.21377.499205.524

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10106.839145.089
2087.696122.533
3074.295107.711
4064.32793.824
5054.73481.729
6046.31668.836
7038.45856.930
8029.21543.979
9017.74228.469

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1163.119201.955
2142.494183.873
3136.220176.768
4129.704170.916
5124.547166.570
6119.763160.505
7115.468156.220
8112.651152.194
9109.872148.149
10106.839145.089
11104.457142.533
12101.758139.690
1399.698137.517
1497.912135.323
1596.082132.892
1693.749130.945
1792.495128.653
1890.625126.295
1989.277124.199
2087.696122.533
2186.079120.911
2284.587119.090
2383.322117.806
2482.144115.920
2580.881114.729
2679.396113.696
2778.173112.113
2876.710110.845
2975.533109.360
3074.295107.711
3173.213106.188
3272.199104.626
3371.178103.382
3469.936102.147
3569.069100.435
3668.26099.052
3767.13497.660
3866.16596.349
3965.16095.264
4064.32793.824
4163.38292.418
4262.35291.367
4361.35990.476
4460.46489.241
4559.39188.121
4658.40186.857
4757.25285.699
4856.48784.172
4955.50683.004
5054.73481.729
5153.97380.561
5253.02779.380
5352.18677.985
5451.34076.636
5550.56975.252
5649.59973.552
5748.84372.537
5848.07371.502
5947.01670.356
6046.31668.836
6145.45367.300
6244.72466.166
6344.06965.098
6443.36163.773
6542.46762.732
6641.55661.659
6740.68960.648
6839.95659.317
6939.32157.935
7038.45856.930
7137.40455.544
7236.67154.421
7335.94253.092
7434.98351.893
7534.10450.550
7633.23149.339
7732.34648.007
7831.26946.765
7930.21445.566
8029.21543.979
8128.14242.473
8227.35641.027
8326.43639.372
8425.19337.974
8524.11236.754
8622.93635.102
8721.69833.387
8820.33632.001
8918.92630.330
9017.74228.469
9116.46226.731
9215.04724.682
9313.29122.509
9411.61519.890
959.51718.039
967.02815.946
974.12712.983
980.00010.541
990.0007.853


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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