Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Aug0.6551.0550.6670.0180.8722.583
Aug-Sep0.9571.4550.8810.0211.5166.504
Aug-Oct1.2821.7890.8830.0212.20510.822

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.5593.020
201.9851.814
301.6061.287
401.3520.928
501.1580.692
600.9780.500
700.8120.364
800.6510.247
900.4780.136

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
14.8489.891
24.1596.959
33.6776.006
43.4335.313
53.2404.828
63.0174.243
72.8823.866
82.7583.536
92.6533.233
102.5593.020
112.4852.853
122.4262.678
132.3522.550
142.2892.426
152.2272.296
162.1682.198
172.1132.085
182.0811.975
192.0291.883
201.9851.814
211.9321.748
221.8921.674
231.8451.627
241.8061.557
251.7691.516
261.7371.480
271.6981.426
281.6691.383
291.6361.338
301.6061.287
311.5781.242
321.5471.197
331.5201.162
341.4911.130
351.4671.085
361.4451.051
371.4181.016
381.3940.986
391.3740.960
401.3520.928
411.3340.897
421.3070.875
431.2910.856
441.2700.831
451.2520.809
461.2310.784
471.2080.763
481.1890.735
491.1740.714
501.1580.692
511.1420.672
521.1190.653
531.1000.630
541.0820.610
551.0630.588
561.0440.564
571.0250.550
581.0110.535
590.9930.520
600.9780.500
610.9600.481
620.9420.467
630.9260.454
640.9110.438
650.8960.426
660.8800.414
670.8610.403
680.8440.389
690.8290.374
700.8120.364
710.7980.350
720.7860.339
730.7690.326
740.7510.315
750.7350.303
760.7180.292
770.7030.280
780.6850.270
790.6660.260
800.6510.247
810.6360.235
820.6220.224
830.6030.211
840.5880.201
850.5760.192
860.5570.180
870.5430.168
880.5200.159
890.5000.148
900.4780.136
910.4610.125
920.4420.112
930.4190.098
940.3920.082
950.3670.071
960.3360.058
970.2990.040
980.2700.025
990.2140.008


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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