Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Product list for Coen River at Coen Racecourse



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Historical and exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse ( Jan  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (1992) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan16.6789.93514.0662.41210.88837.008
Jan-Feb47.69838.85532.9504.26345.260109.923
Jan-Mar85.66170.07642.7867.21383.159205.524

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10135.854145.089
20114.769122.533
30100.765107.711
4088.68493.824
5078.71381.729
6069.09568.836
7059.80656.930
8048.74543.979
9034.76828.469

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1206.033201.955
2180.481183.873
3168.294176.768
4160.815170.916
5156.518166.570
6150.684160.505
7146.339156.220
8142.749152.194
9138.855148.149
10135.854145.089
11133.582142.533
12130.956139.690
13129.008137.517
14126.790135.323
15124.756132.892
16122.007130.945
17120.224128.653
18118.233126.295
19116.524124.199
20114.769122.533
21113.100120.911
22111.715119.090
23110.257117.806
24108.704115.920
25107.363114.729
26105.763113.696
27104.345112.113
28103.077110.845
29101.909109.360
30100.765107.711
3199.300106.188
3298.209104.626
3396.926103.382
3495.843102.147
3594.557100.435
3693.23799.052
3791.91297.660
3891.06396.349
3989.86095.264
4088.68493.824
4187.57092.418
4286.34891.367
4385.25390.476
4484.37689.241
4583.48188.121
4682.58386.857
4781.76485.699
4880.56884.172
4979.48183.004
5078.71381.729
5177.80380.561
5276.82079.380
5375.58077.985
5474.60676.636
5573.79875.252
5672.96673.552
5771.80672.537
5870.80971.502
5969.95770.356
6069.09568.836
6168.23667.300
6267.07966.166
6366.21465.098
6465.37063.773
6564.14762.732
6663.44561.659
6762.51560.648
6861.55759.317
6960.61557.935
7059.80656.930
7158.95255.544
7257.91054.421
7356.70153.092
7455.57251.893
7554.42150.550
7653.24549.339
7752.22148.007
7851.26046.765
7950.11045.566
8048.74543.979
8147.54942.473
8246.01241.027
8344.88039.372
8443.60537.974
8542.26336.754
8640.58935.102
8738.85033.387
8837.66632.001
8936.30330.330
9034.76828.469
9132.95726.731
9230.75824.682
9329.07822.509
9427.15719.890
9524.77718.039
9621.57115.946
9718.39712.983
9814.65910.541
998.5177.853


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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