Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coen River at Coen Racecourse ( Jan  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (1992) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan16.61114.066NA2.41210.53237.008
Jan-Feb47.32832.950NA4.26342.373109.923
Jan-Mar84.56942.786NA7.21377.121205.524

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10145.089
20122.533
30107.711
4093.824
5081.729
6068.836
7056.930
8043.979
9028.469

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1201.955
2183.873
3176.768
4170.916
5166.570
6160.505
7156.220
8152.194
9148.149
10145.089
11142.533
12139.690
13137.517
14135.323
15132.892
16130.945
17128.653
18126.295
19124.199
20122.533
21120.911
22119.090
23117.806
24115.920
25114.729
26113.696
27112.113
28110.845
29109.360
30107.711
31106.188
32104.626
33103.382
34102.147
35100.435
3699.052
3797.660
3896.349
3995.264
4093.824
4192.418
4291.367
4390.476
4489.241
4588.121
4686.857
4785.699
4884.172
4983.004
5081.729
5180.561
5279.380
5377.985
5476.636
5575.252
5673.552
5772.537
5871.502
5970.356
6068.836
6167.300
6266.166
6365.098
6463.773
6562.732
6661.659
6760.648
6859.317
6957.935
7056.930
7155.544
7254.421
7353.092
7451.893
7550.550
7649.339
7748.007
7846.765
7945.566
8043.979
8142.473
8241.027
8339.372
8437.974
8536.754
8635.102
8733.387
8832.001
8930.330
9028.469
9126.731
9224.682
9322.509
9419.890
9518.039
9615.946
9712.983
9810.541
997.853


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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