Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Product list for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.1746.157
200.0431.208
300.0140.286
400.0050.072
500.0020.021
600.0000.005
700.0000.001
800.0000.000
900.0000.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.42622.927
22.11317.606
31.28215.493
40.93913.772
50.66212.447
60.47510.679
70.3619.419
80.2778.224
90.2157.041
100.1746.157
110.1475.433
120.1254.654
130.1094.076
140.0933.517
150.0812.947
160.0722.536
170.0622.093
180.0561.701
190.0501.408
200.0431.208
210.0381.038
220.0340.867
230.0300.771
240.0270.641
250.0240.572
260.0210.517
270.0190.441
280.0170.389
290.0160.337
300.0140.286
310.0130.247
320.0110.211
330.0100.186
340.0100.166
350.0090.139
360.0080.122
370.0070.106
380.0060.093
390.0060.083
400.0050.072
410.0050.063
420.0040.056
430.0040.052
440.0040.046
450.0030.041
460.0030.036
470.0020.032
480.0020.027
490.0020.024
500.0020.021
510.0010.019
520.0010.017
530.0010.014
540.0010.013
550.0010.011
560.0000.009
570.0000.008
580.0000.007
590.0000.006
600.0000.005
610.0000.005
620.0000.004
630.0000.004
640.0000.003
650.0000.003
660.0000.002
670.0000.002
680.0000.002
690.0000.001
700.0000.001
710.0000.001
720.0000.001
730.0000.001
740.0000.001
750.0000.000
760.0000.000
770.0000.000
780.0000.000
790.0000.000
800.0000.000
810.0000.000
820.0000.000
830.0000.000
840.0000.000
850.0000.000
860.0000.000
870.0000.000
880.0000.000
890.0000.000
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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