Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Product list for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains



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Exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1043.397
2030.403
3021.863
4013.970
507.737
603.211
701.246
800.405
900.083

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
176.122
265.718
361.630
458.262
555.761
652.271
749.805
847.487
945.159
1043.397
1141.925
1240.288
1339.037
1437.773
1536.373
1635.251
1733.930
1832.571
1931.363
2030.403
2129.468
2228.418
2327.679
2426.592
2525.905
2625.310
2724.397
2823.667
2922.812
3021.863
3120.988
3220.091
3319.378
3418.671
3517.694
3616.908
3716.119
3815.380
3914.772
4013.970
4113.194
4212.620
4312.137
4411.476
4510.886
4610.230
479.642
488.887
498.328
507.737
517.214
526.707
536.136
545.614
555.111
564.539
574.221
583.916
593.599
603.211
612.857
622.617
632.408
642.170
651.997
661.833
671.690
681.516
691.354
701.246
711.110
721.011
730.903
740.815
750.726
760.654
770.582
780.521
790.468
800.405
810.352
820.308
830.263
840.229
850.203
860.172
870.144
880.124
890.103
900.083
910.067
920.052
930.039
940.026
950.020
960.014
970.007
980.004
990.002


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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